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Friday, September 18, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-18-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

No Rebound in Dollar Yet

Dollar continues to trade with in soft tone in tight range in early US session. While downside momentum in dollar is diminishing, there is no trigger for a noticeable rebound yet. Stocks in US open higher and look set to extend recent rally. Commodities are also regaining some strength after brief pullback with crude oil back above 72 while Gold also recovers from earlier dip.

Full Report Here...

Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Despite retreating to 131.30 on Monday, as indicated key support at 131.01 has contained euro's downside, the subsequent rebound from there has retained our bullish count and gain to 136.09 resistance is likely, however, a daily close above there is needed to signal the fall from 138.72 (tentatively wave ii of 3) has ended at 131.01 and bring resumption of upmove for gain to 138.72, then towards 139.26.

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Although early breach of chart support at 1.0370 signals the b wave from 1.2298 is still in progress and fall towards 1.0176 (61.8% projection of 1.1967 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.1026) is likely, psychological support at 1.0000 (also just below the 100% projection of (a) leg at 1.0039 and chart support at 1.0011) should limit downside and bring rebound later this month or in Q4.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EURJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

As the single currency has rebounded after holding above previous support at 131.01, retaining our view that further consolidation within recent established range of 127.00-139.26 would take place and gain to our indicated upside targets at 135.00 is still likely, then test of 136.05/10. Having said that, upside should be limited to resistance at 138.72 and only break of this level would signal the rise from 112.08 low has resumed for retest of 139.26, then 141.03 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 169.97-112.08 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top).

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NZDUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Despite retreating to 0.6685 earlier, as kiwi found renewed buying interest above the Tenkan-Sen and has risen again, suggesting the upmove from 0.4895 remains in progress and gain towards 0.7244/46 (1.618 times projection of 0.4895-0.5981 measuring from 0.5487 and 61.8% projection of 0.4895 to 0.6594 measuring from 0.6196) cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 0.7447 (previous support turned resistance) and risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4698; (P) 1.4732; (R1) 1.4777; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, a short term top should be around the corner. Below 1.4640 minor support will suggest that rise form 1.4177 has possibly completed and will flip back to the downside for 1.4463 support and below. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'd continue to expect loss of momentum ahead of 1.4867 key resistance to bring reversal finally.

Read more...

All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPUSD 1.6339 1.6450 -111 -0.68%
GBPCHF 1.6806 1.6912 -106 -0.63%
EURGBP 0.9011 0.8960 +51 +0.57%
GBPJPY 149.12 149.82 -70 -0.47%
GBPCAD 1.7431 1.7510 -79 -0.45%

Last Updated: Sep 18, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 18, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Aug 0.50% 0.10% -1.50%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Aug -6.90% -7.20% -7.80%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul 6.6B -4.3B -5.3B
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Aug 16.1B 17.7B 8.0B
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Aug P 0.10% 0.80% 1.50% 1.30%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Aug P 12.60% 13.80% 14.50% 14.40%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jul 2.80% 0.70% 0.60%
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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Action Insight Daily Report 9-18-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Sterling Dives on Renewed Banking Concern, Dollar Losing Downside Momentum

Sterling falls sharply overnight on renewed concern on the banking sector in UK and remains pressured in early European session. There was news that Lloyds Banking Group was blocked by FSA from quitting the scheme to insure it against credit-related losses and was told that it can only leave the scheme if it can raise a significant amount of fresh capital. The amount of capital required is believed to be "unfeasible". The pound was sold off earlier this week on BoE King's comment that the central bank is considering to lower its deposit rate.

Full Report Here...

Special Reports

SNB Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged but will Continue on Currency Intervention

As expected, the SNB decided to leave the 3-month LIBOR target unchanged at 0.25%. However, the central bank has turned slightly more optimistic about the economy and raised its outlook on GDP and inflation.

Full Report Here...

BOE May Reduce Deposit Rate. How Does it Work and What are the Impacts?

At the Treasury Select Committee hearing on September 15, the BOE Governor Mervyn King said the MPC is considering lowering the remuneration on banks' reserve. The issue was actually not new as King mentioned about it at the August Inflation report but the BOE did not announce any action at September's meeting. The Governor brought the issue out again may suggest something will be done in coming months and this triggered selloff in sterling. Cable plunged below the 1.65 support before finding support around 1.6425 while EURGBP broke above recent trading range in 0.884 and rose to 0.89. In this article, we will talk about how a change in remuneration rate works and its impact on QE.

Full Report Here...

Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0420, O.C.O Buy At 1.0230

Despite falling marginally to 1.0275 yesterday, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent recovery suggest further consolidation would be seen and minor correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0350) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0420-25 (also the current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), bring another decline later to 1.0265/68 (1.236 times projection of 1.0885 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.0708), then 1.0230 (approx. 50% projection of 1.0700 to 1.0322 measuring from 1.0420). However, oversold condition would limit downside and reckon 1.0200 would hold, bring rebound later.

Full Report Here...

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6450

Despite rebounding to 1.6569 yesterday, the British pound met renewed selling right at the Kijun-Sen and dropped sharply from there on active cross-selling and the break of 1.6403 support confirms the decline from 1.6742 has resumed and further fall towards 1.6288 is likely, however, near term oversold condition would limit downside to 1.6230 (100% projection of 1.6742 to 1.6403 measuring from 1.6569) and bring another bounce later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4570

As resistance at 1.4768 has continued to hold, the retreat from there suggests further consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4641) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around support at 1.4561 and the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4538) would hold, bring another rally. Above said resistance would extend towards 1.4790 (61.8% projection of 1.4191 to 1.4636 measuring from 1.4515) but reckon 1.4850/60 would cap upside and bring a long overdue correction later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Exit Short Entered At 91.60

Although the greenback retreated after meeting offers right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom and fall to the Kijun-Sen (now at 90.88) is likely, only break of yesterday's low at 90.52 would retain bearishness for recent decline to resume for retest of 90.12, then option barrier at 90.00. However, loss of downward momentum would limit downside to 89.44-50 (approx. 1.236 times projection of 95.07 to 91.94 measuring from 93.31).

Full Report Here...

Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8915; (P) 0.8943; (R1) 0.8987; More.

EUR/GBP's rally resumes after brief consolidation and took out mentioned 38.2% retracement of 0.9799 to 0.8399 at 0.8934 decisively. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9799 to 0.8399 at 0.9264 next after taking out 0.9 psychological level. On the downside, below 0.8954 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring retreat but consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 0.8881 support holds.

Read more...

All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 148.75 149.82 -107 -0.72%
GBPUSD 1.6340 1.6450 -110 -0.67%
AUDJPY 78.95 79.42 -47 -0.60%
AUDUSD 0.8677 0.8726 -49 -0.56%
CADJPY 85.15 85.52 -37 -0.43%

Last Updated: Sep 18, 07:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 18, 07:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
6:00 EUR German PPI M/M Aug 0.50% 0.10% -1.50%
6:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Aug -6.90% -7.20% -7.80%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul -4.3B -5.3B
8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Aug 17.6B 8.0B
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Aug P 0.80% 1.50%
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Aug P 13.80% 14.50%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jul 0.70% 0.60%
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

Forex Brokers
Advanced Currency Markets
CMS
MIG
GFT
ODL Securities
InterbankFX
FXCM
MGForex
Sponsors

What's next for UK and Global Economies
Attend FREE: Get Investment Insight at The World MoneyShow and position your portfolio for safety and income.

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Attend The World MoneyShow Toronto, October 20-22 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre and meet world-renowned investment and trading experts and their specific advice that will help you manage your assets confidently and profitably in 2009 and beyond!

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Forward this report to a friend!

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This email was sent to banzou.forex@blogger.com by contact@actionforex.com.

Action Forex Company Limited | Room 1707, 17/F | Treasure Center | 42 Hung To Road | Kwun Tong | Kowloon | 852 | Hong Kong

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-17-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

SNB Reiterated Statnce to Prevent Franc Appreciation

Swiss Franc spikes lower after SNB left rates unchanged and pledged it will continue to counter appreciation of the franc. The three-month Libor was left unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. SNB noted in the accompanying statement that there are still "considerable" uncertainty as to future developments and hence SNB opted for "caution" to leave rates unchanged. Regarding currency policy, the bank reiterated that it will "continue to act decisively to prevent any appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro.” After all, the Swissy settled back into familiar range after initial knee-jerk reactions.

Full Report Here...

Special Reports

BOE May Reduce Deposit Rate. How Does it Work and What are the Impacts?

At the Treasury Select Committee hearing on September 15, the BOE Governor Mervyn King said the MPC is considering lowering the remuneration on banks' reserve. The issue was actually not new as King mentioned about it at the August Inflation report but the BOE did not announce any action at September's meeting. The Governor brought the issue out again may suggest something will be done in coming months and this triggered selloff in sterling. Cable plunged below the 1.65 support before finding support around 1.6425 while EURGBP broke above recent trading range in 0.884 and rose to 0.89. In this article, we will talk about how a change in remuneration rate works and its impact on QE.

Full Report Here...

FX Forecasts Update: USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF

Improved market sentiment and favors towards risky assets pressured the dollar over the past month. Although USD's decline against major currencies looked excessive, investors remained hesitant to remove the bearish view on USD. The general themes on the dollar remain to be interest rate differential, increasing appetite to higher-yield investments and reserve diversification. These topics will likely render the dollar chronically weak in the near-term.

Full Report Here...

Elliott Wave Analysis

AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

As the Australian dollar has rebounded after finding support at 77.35, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, as long as resistance at 82.00 holds, we are keeping our view that top has possibly been formed at 82.00 and mild downside bias is seen for fall towards 77.35, then 75.00/05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 70.76 to 82.00). Looking ahead, a daily close below there is needed to add credence to this view and bring correction towards 71.90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 55.56 to 82.00) later.

Full Report Here...

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

As aussie has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting medium term upmove from 0.6007 low is still in progress and our indicated upside target at 0.8690 (50% projection of wave (i) - (iii) measuring from wave (iv) trough) has been formed, however, as this is viewed as the last leg of larger degree wave C as well as wave (B), upside should be limited to 0.8923 (61.8% projection of wave (i) to (iii) measuring from wave (iv) at 0.7700) and the entire wave C and wave (B) should be capped below 0.9000, bring selloff later in wave (C).

Full Report Here...

Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EUR/CHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Despite retreating to 1.5111 earlier this week, as price is expected to stay within near term range of 1.5006-1.5448, downside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5087) and as long as indicated key support at 1.5000/06 holds, further consolidation would take place and another rebound to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.5238) is likely. A weekly close above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5338) would bring test of 1.5383 resistance. Looking ahead, only a weekly close above 1.5383 resistance would confirm an upside break of indicated range has taken place and bring further rise to 1.5448, then 1.5600.

Full Report Here...

USDCAD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The greenback fell again after meeting renewed selling right at the Tenkan-Sen, suggesting the decline from 1.3066 top has resumed and further weakness to 1.0584-90 (50% projection of 1.3066 to 1.0784 measuring from 1.1725 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9059 – 1.3066), then towards 1.0315 (61.8% projection) is likely, however, break of support at 1.0298 is needed to retain bearishness, otherwise, risk has increased for a rebound later.

Full Report Here...

Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0306; (P) 1.0362; (R1) 1.0401; More

USD/CHF recovers again after 1.0284 but yet, as long as 1.0489 resistance holds, further decline is still in favor. Further fall could still be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.1740 to 1.0590 from 1.0883 at 1.0172. However, break of 1.0489 will be an important signal that USD/CHF has bottomed out and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1.0714 resistance next.

Read more...

All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDUSD 0.7091 0.7137 -46 -0.65%
USDJPY 91.33 90.92 +41 +0.45%
AUDUSD 0.8700 0.8733 -33 -0.38%
GBPJPY 150.49 149.92 +57 +0.38%
CADJPY 85.58 85.26 +32 +0.37%

Last Updated: Sep 17, 13:25 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 17, 13:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Manufacturing index Q/Q Q3 15.5 -11.4 -13.2
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jul 0.60% 0.60% 0.10% 0.20%
03:30 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Aug 2.10% 2.70% 3.30% 2.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 6.8B 1.2B 1.0B
10:00 GBP U.K. CBI Industrial Orders Sep -48 -49 -54
11:00 CAD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.20% -0.30%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Aug -0.80% -0.70% -0.90%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.60% 1.60% 1.80%
12:00 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Aug 1.10% 0.50% 0.40% 0.60%
12:30 USD Housing Starts Aug 598K 595K 581K 589K
12:30 USD Building Permits Aug 579K 580K 560K 564K
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 12) 545K 558K 550K
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. Survey Sep 7.8 4.2
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 74B 69B
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

Forex Brokers
Advanced Currency Markets
CMS
MIG
GFT
ODL Securities
InterbankFX
FXCM
MGForex
Sponsors

What's next for UK and Global Economies
Attend FREE: Get Investment Insight at The World MoneyShow and position your portfolio for safety and income.

FREE Registration here>>

Attend The World MoneyShow Toronto, October 20-22 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre and meet world-renowned investment and trading experts and their specific advice that will help you manage your assets confidently and profitably in 2009 and beyond!

FREE Registration here>>


Forward this report to a friend!

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Action Forex Company Limited | Room 1707, 17/F | Treasure Center | 42 Hung To Road | Kwun Tong | Kowloon | 852 | Hong Kong