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Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-9-11

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Siwss Franc Surges to Another Record high on Safe-Haven Flows

With euro and sterling remained confined within established ranges, Swiss franc once again took the center stage and surged to another record highs against the greenback and euro at 0.7360 and 1.0475 respectively on continued safe-haven demand due to global financial markets turmoil. The Swiss franc gained approximately 14 percent over the past month, not only versus dollar and euro but also aussie and kiwi which rallied especially in the past 2 weeks. The two commodity currencies tumbled since last week on speculations that the two central banks, RBA and RBNZ, may consider cutting rates if global turmoil persists. According to interest rate futures, market is pricing in at least 50 basis points rate cut in September’s meeting.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7579; (P) 0.7660; (R1) 0.7741; More...

USD/CHF dives further to new record low of 0.7361 so far today and met mentioned target of 200% projection of 0.8519 to 0.8081 from 0.8277 at 0.7401. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall should now extend towards 261.8% projection at 0.7130. On the upside, break of 0.7801 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

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Fed To Revisit Easing Options Amid Rising Likelihood Of Recession

While Friday's employment report may reduce the urgency of a new round of Fed's easing, deteriorating economic outlook and actions form other central banks suggest that the central bank will deliver a much less optimistic policy statement and move towards additional stimulus measures. There are several options the Fed can take to stimulate growth: changing the language in the statement, shifting the composition of the balance sheet to longer maturity, lowering interest rates paid on excess reserve, formalizing an inflation target, indicating explicit interest rate ceilings for longer-term Treasury debts (with an ingredient of asset buying) and outright bond purchases (i.e. QE3). Policymakers are unlikely to extend QE3 until more evidence on a sustainable slowdown is present and inflation and inflation expectations moderated signaficantly. We expect the Fed will at most take the first option at the August meeting. Despite small impact on the outlook, it might help lift sentiment and lead to anticipation of further easing in coming months.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Jul 0.60% -0.50% -0.60%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Jul -22.00% -28.00% -27.00%
01:30 AUD Home Loans Jun 0.00% 0.80% 4.40%
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jul 2 0
02:00 CNY CPI Y/Y Jul 6.50% 6.40% 6.40%
01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Jul 7.50% 7.50% 7.10%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Household Jul 37 37 35.3
05:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Jul -17 -5 -1
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jun 11.5B 12.8B 12.8B 12.9B
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jul P 34.60% 53.50%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jun 0.00% 0.40% 0.90% 0.80%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jun -0.30% 0.20% -0.80% -0.90%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jun -0.40% 0.20% 1.80%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jun 2.10% 2.80% 2.80%
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jun -8.9B -8.2B -8.5B
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Jul 205K 195.0K 197.4K
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 P 2.20% 2.40% 0.70%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q2 P -0.30% -0.50% 1.80%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jul 0.60% 0.10%
18:15 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.4195

As the single currency has rebounded again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.4184, retaining our near term upside bias for the rebound from yesterday’s low of 1.4130 to extend to 1.4300 and possibly to 1.4330, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, upside should be limited to 1.4400 and reckon resistance area at 1.4432-54 would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0030

Although the Australian dollar tumbled to as low as 0.9927 earlier today, the subsequent rebound from there suggests a temporary low is possibly formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen but break of 1.0255/60 is needed to add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent selloff to 1.0300 but upside should be limited to 1.0400 and price should falter well below 1.0455, bring another selloff.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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