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Daily Report: Dollar Strong on Risk Aversion, Italian Auction, BoE WatchedThe surge in Italian bond yields triggered another strong wave of risk aversion which carried on to today. Asian stocks are broadly lower with Nikkei down over -2.9% following the -389 pts, or -3.2% fall in DOW. Dollar index broke 77.67 resistance to resume recent rebound from 74.72 and reaches as high as 78.07 so far today. Italian yield will continue to be closely watched today, in particular, eyes will be on today's sales of EUR 5b of one-year bills. In any case, we don't expect a near term risk rebound unless Italian 10 year yield can drop back below then 7% unsustainable level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0131; (P) 1.0184; (R1) 1.0291; More. USD/CAD's break of 1.0228 resistance indicates that rebound form 0.9891 has resumed. As noted before, pull back from 1.0656 should be completed at 0.9891 already, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.0656 at 0.9884. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rally should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9891 to 1.0228 from 1.0076 at 1.0413 first. On the downside, break of 1..0076 support is needed to signal completion of the rebound. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bullish in USD/CAD in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
BOE To Hint Further Easing PossibleWhile our expectation, in line with the consensus, is that the BOE will leave unchanged the monetary policy it announced in October, i.e. the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 275B pound, up +75b pound, it’s likely that policymakers will hint that further easing is possible should financial market conditions deteriorate further. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency plunged yesterday on renewed concerns over eurozone debt crisis and rising bond yields (Italian, French and Belgium), despite recovering in New York morning, the pair fell again overnight to as low as 1.3515 this morning, however, bids are still noted ahead of 1.3500 barrier with more stops placed below there, followed by another barrier at 1.3450. On the upside, offers from various parties are reported at 1.3580 and also 1.3600-10 with some stops placed above latter level but more selling interest should emerge around 1.3650-60 and 1.3680 with sizeable stops only emerging above 1.3690-00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3650As the single currency has remained under pressure after yesterday’s selloff below previous support at 1.3608, suggesting the decline from 1.4248 top is still in progress for a stronger retracement of early rise from 1.3145 to 1.3500 and then 1.3470/75 (61.8% projection of 1.4248-1.3608 measuring from 1.3870), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.3430/40 and price should stay well above 1.3400 Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9030As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday’s rally above previous resistance at 0.9068 and 0.9082, suggesting the rise form 0.8568 low is still in progress and further gain to 0.9155 (100% projection of 0.8568-0.8961 measuring from 0.8762) and the0.9180/85, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 0.9200/10 which is likely to hold on first testing, bring minor correction later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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