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Daily Report: Dollar Soft after Fitch's Rating Outlook DowngradeDollar remains a bit soft in Asian session today after Fitch downgraded US's AAA rating outlook to negative, noting “declining confidence that timely fiscal measures necessary to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path will be forthcoming.” The negative outlook indicates a slightly greater than 50% chance of a downgrade over a two year horizon. That followed the supercommittee's failure to reach a deal last week, which could now trigger a $1.2T automatic cut that starts in 2013. Fitch wanted that if no "credible" agreement is reached over the next two years on debt reduction, it could downgrade the rating. Worsening of economic and fiscal outlook could also trigger a downgrade by the end of 2013. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9801; (P) 0.9889; (R1) 0.9988; More AUD/USD's recovery from 0.9663 is still in progress and focus is on 1.0052 resistance. As long as 1.0052 holds, another fall remains mildly in favor and below 0.9663 will l target a test on 0.9387 first. Break will indicate that whole correction pattern from 1.1079 has resumed for fall from 1.0752 as the third leg. Nonetheless, sustained break of 1.0052 will indicate short term bottoming and will turn focus back to 1.0752 resistance instead. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency slipped in yesterday's New York trade on news that Moody's putting European banks (subordinated, junior and tier 3 debt) on review for a downgrade and French AAA rating is at risk of being placed on negative outlook by S&P, euro found decent demand this morning by Asian names and bids are still noted from 1.3280 down to 1.3260. The pair has rebounded and filled offers at 1.3360, however, offers are still noted at 1.3390-00 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.3410-20. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.3300Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.3286, as the single currency found good support above the Ichimoku cloud bottom in line with our expectation and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness for the rebound from 1.3213 (last week’s low) to bring another leg of corrective rise towards 1.3412 resistance, however, break there is needed to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.3450 Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5475Although the British pound retreated sharply from yesterday’s high of 1.5595, as cable found support right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom and has rebounded from 1.5469, retaining our bullishness for the rebound from last week’s low of 1.5423 to bring another corrective rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.5595 would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.5600-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5888 to 1.5423) but price is likely to falter well below 1.5650. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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