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Mid-Day Report: Italian Yield Drives Risk Aversion Again, But Impact Limited So farMarkets tried to push risk assets lower earlier today as Italian yield breached 7% again on poor Spain and Belgium bill auctions. Spread between German bunds and 10 year bonds of Spain, Belgium, Austria and even France rose to euro era record. Spain managed to sell EUR 3.16b of 12- and 18- months bills today only versus it's maximum target of EUR 3.5b. Meanwhile, Belgium sold EUR 2.73b of bills today versus its target of EUR 3.2b. German ZEW economic sentiments dropped to 3 year low of -55.2 in November. , much versus expectation of -52.5 while Eurozone ZEW dived to -59.1 versus expectation of -55.3. Q3 GDP data were not bad with Eurozone GDP qoq up 0.2% while German GDP rose 0.5% qoq, both inline with expectation. French Q3 GDP rose 0.4% qoq versus consensus of 0.3% qoq. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3547; (P) 1.3677 (R1) 1.3762; More. EUR/USD dips further to as low as 1.3511 so far today but is holding above 1.3483. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.3794 minor resistance should confirm that corrective fall from 1.4246 is already finished with three waves down to 1.3484. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen to retest 1.4246 resistance. Nevertheless, below 1.3483 will indicate that fall from 1.4246 has resumed and should target a test on 1.3145 support instead. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to move lower in European session on weaker-than-expected ZEW survey and stop-hunting, stops below 1.3550 and 1.3530 were triggered, however, bids from Chinese names are reported at 1.3500 with more stops seen below there and 1.3480 with mixture of bids and stops seen further out at 1.3450-60. On the upside, offers from Eastern European names, real money accounts and European sovereign names are noted at 1.3570/75 and 1.3600 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.3620-30 but sizeable sell orders are expected to emerge around 1.3650. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55Dollar’s retreat after intra-day brief bounce to 77.51 (just faltered below indicated previous support at 77.54) signals the rebound from 76.81 (yesterday’s low) has possibly ended there and near term downside risk remains for another test of said support level at 76.81. A break there would extend recent fall from 79.55 top towards 76.55 but loss of momentum should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8650Although the single currency has retreated after yesterday’s rebound to 0.8603, as long as support at 0.8486 (last week’s low) holds, further consolidation would be seen and risk remains for another corrective bounce, above said resistance would bring retracement to resistance at 0.8657 where renewed selling interest should emerge, bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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