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Monday, November 21, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-21-11

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Off as Markets Weighed Further Down by Moody's Warning on France Rating

In addition to the concern on the failure of the US supercommittee, market sentiments are also weighed down by Moody's warning on France's rating outlook. Moody's noted in its Weekly Credit Outlook report today that rising bond yields for extended period would "amplify the fiscal challenges the French government faces amid a deteriorating growth outlook, with negative credit implications". The rating agency said "deterioration in debt metrics and the potential for further liabilities to emerge", pressure the stable outlook of France's AAA debt rating. Sluggish GDP growth, as the government's forecasts of 1% in 2012, and higher interest burden will give more difficulties to deficit reduction.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5729; (P) 1.5808; (R1) 1.5880; More.

GBP/USD drops to as low as 1.5616 as the fall from 1.6165 resumes. The break of 1.5631 support argues that whole rebound from 1.5271 is possibly over at 1.6165. Intraday bias is back on the downside and deeper fall could be seen to retest 1.5271 low. On the upside, break of 1.5887 is needed to signal completion of the fall from 1.6165. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish now.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Oct -0.46T -0.20T -0.02T -0.10T
00:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Nov -3.10% 2.80%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Sep -0.90% -1.00% -0.50% -0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Sep 0.5B -3.4B -5.0B -5.9B
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Sep 0.30% 0.60% 0.20%
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Oct 4.80M 4.91M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite all those political changes made in Spain and Italy, it seemed that investors and traders are not quite satisfied and considered those may not be enough to solve the debt crisis, rumors of French losing stable rating outlook also put pressure on euro, the single currency dropped again in European morning and bids at 1.3450 were cleared, however, buying interest is still seen at 1.3420-30 with stops building up below 1.3420 and 1.3400 barrier. On the upside, offers from Middle East names and real money accounts are lowered to 1.3470 and 1.3500 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.3540-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5750

As the British pound has remained under pressure after breaking previous support at 1.5692, adding credence to our view that the decline from 1.6167 top is still in progress and further weakness to 1.5613-17 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5270-1.6167 and 61.8% projection of 1.6130-1.5692 measuring from 1.5888) and possibly 1.5580 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.5550/55

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0100

Although aussie has remained under pressure, loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9860/65 and risk remains for a corrective rebound to take place, above 1.0000 would bring recovery to 1.0050 but renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0100 and bring another decline later. Below 0.9860/65 would extend the decline from 1.0753 top to 0.9800, however, as this move is still viewed as a deep correction of the rise from 0.9388, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9740/50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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