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Daily Report: Sentiments Remain Weak on Banking ConcernsDollar pared some gains and lost momentum after Fitch Ratings warned that US banks are facing serious contagion risks from further deterioration of European debt crisis. But the greenback remains supported by generally weak sentiments. Fitch noted that "unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen." The six largest US banks had around $50b in net exposure to the five most troubled countries in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain, including deposits, loans outstanding and securities. And, even if the risks are hedged with CDS, the CDS will not be triggered in case of voluntary losses like what Greece plan to do in the second bailout. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 120.90; (P) 121.44; (R1) 121.75; More GBP/JPY's fall from 127.30 extends further to as low as 120.88 so far today and is still in progress for 119.98 support. As noted before, break there will confirm that whole choppy corrective rise from 116.83 is finished at 127.30 already. And in such case, recent down trend is likely resuming for a new low below 116.83. On the upside, break of 123.15 is need to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish even in case of recovery. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped again as renewed selling interest continued to emerge around 1.3550/55 as indicated in our previous update, price then resumed recent decline to as low as 1.3421 this morning (previous low was 1.3429), however, previously mentioned demand from Middle East names provided good support around 1.3420 and euro has rebounded again from 1.3421. At the moment, mixtures of offers and stops remain at 1.3555-65 and further out at 1.3600-10 whilst decent demand remains from 1.3420 down to 1.3400 (option barrier) with more stops placed below latter level. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5910Despite intra-day resumption of decline to 1.5692, current rebound suggests a minor low has been formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 1.5815-21 (previous resistance and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), however, upside should be limited to previous support at 1.5869 and renewed selling interest should emerge below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5917), bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55Yesterday’s retreat to 76.85 suggests near term downside risk remains for a retest of this week’s low of 76.81, break there would extend the fall from 79.55 top for one more decline to 76.55, however, loss of momentum should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Above 77.15 (yesterday’s high and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) would bring test of indicated resistance at 77.51-54 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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