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Daily Report: Euro Stays Pressured on Downgrade WorryMarket sentiments remain pressured by threat of European downgrades by rating agencies. After S&P and Moody's, Fitch criticized yesterday that there is a "lack of comprehensive solution" to the European debt crisis and that "increased short-term pressure on Eurozone sovereign credit profiles and ratings". Fitch warned that "the crisis will continue at varying levels of intensity throughout 2012 and probably beyond, until the region is able to sustain broad economic recovery." Fitch also forecasted a "significant economic downturn across the region". Fitch also urged ECB to "step up its actions in support of its sovereign shareholders as a quid pro quo for institutional and legal changes that gave the ECB greater confidence in the long-run commitment of euro-zone governments to fiscal discipline appear to have been misplaced". |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8424; (P) 0.8489; (R1) 0.8526; More EUR/GBP drops to as low as 0.8448 so far today and the strong break of 0.8485 support confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.9083. Intraday bias is now on the downside and current fall should extend further to 100% projection of 0.9083 to 0.8529 from 0.8830 at 0.8276, whish is close to 0.8284 key support level. On the upside, above 0.8520 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.8612 and bring fall resumption. |
| Special Report |
FED to Stay on the Sideline in December. Discussion on Improving Communication to ContinueThe December FOMC meeting will likely be a non-event. With operation twist started and recent economic data improved, policymakers would prefer to stand on the sideline and monitor the developments. The meeting would again focus on tools to improving communication with the market. However, we do not expect any material outcome at least until January when Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press conference and when the latest economic projections are released. SNB May Raise EURCHF Ceiling, Send Interest Rate To NegativeSwiss franc remained fragile, hovering within a narrow trading range of 1.22-1.24, amid speculations that the SNB would intervene against appreciation of the currency. Economic growth and inflation have moderated since the last meeting. Together with persistent risks of sovereign crisis in the Eurozone, policymakers would likely delivered a rather downbeat statement, warning against further deterioration in domestic and global economic prospects. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency tumbled yesterday as major rating firms not impressed by the EU summit's result on handling eurozone debt crisis, sizeable stops below 1.3200-10 were triggered and price dropped to as low as 1.3161 this morning (real money accounts and funds were seen selling heavily overnight) before recovering. At the moment, option defensive bids are reported at 1.3160-70 for protection of 1.3150 barrier and stops are expected below there and further out at 1.3100 (where another barrier is located). On the upside, whilst profit-taking demand may lift the pair ahead of FOMC tonight, offers are tipped at 1.3210-20 and also 1.3250-60 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.3280-90. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9300Yesterday’s rally after breaking resistance at 0.9331 confirms the major upmove from record low of 0.7068 has resumed and further gain to 0.9395-00 (61.8% projection of 0.8918-0.9319 measuring from 0.9147) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9445-50 and reckon 0.9490-00 would hold form here Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5630Despite overnight retreat to 1.5573, as cable has rebounded this morning in Asia, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5653) would limit upside and bring another decline later, break of said minor support would suggest the rebound from 1.5537 has ended and bring another test of this level. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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