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Mid-Day Report: Euro Weakens after Moody's WarningWhile markets are still cautious on possible downgrade of Eurozone countries by S&P, Moody's joined the bandwagon today and issued warning on possible downgrade of some EU countries in the coming month. Moody's noted that the sovereign crisis is still at a "critical and volatile stage" after the EU summit. Also, Moody's said that "absence of measures to stabilise credit markets over the short term means that the euro area, and the wider EU, remain prone to further shocks and the cohesion of the euro area under continued threat". Moody's then reiterated its "revisit the ratings of all EU sovereigns" in Q1 of 2012. S&P placed 15 eurozone nations on review last week and warned of possible downgrade and markets are expecting some actions this week. Italy managed to sell maximum of EUR 7b of one-year bills today. Yield dropped to 5.952%, down from prior sale at 6.087% back in early November. Demand was solid with bid-to-cover ratio at 1.92 times, just slightly lower than November's 1.99 times. Euro weakens broadly today and looks set to take out recent support of 1.3212 against dollar. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3298; (P) 1.3366 (R1) 1.3450; More. The break of 1.3259 minor support suggests that recent decline from 1.4246 is ready to resume. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3121 first. Break there should also send EUR/USD through 1.3145 support to extend the whole decline from 1.4939. On the upside, break of 1.3538 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, we'll now stay cautiously bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Report |
FED to Stay on the Sideline in December. Discussion on Improving Communication to ContinueThe December FOMC meeting will likely be a non-event. With operation twist started and recent economic data improved, policymakers would prefer to stand on the sideline and monitor the developments. The meeting would again focus on tools to improving communication with the market. However, we do not expect any material outcome at least until January when Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press conference and when the latest economic projections are released. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite Friday's rebound to 1.3434, the single currency then retreat quite sharply from there probably as traders considered the EU deal is not enough to solve the eurozone debt crisis, the pair slipped again this morning in part due to weakness in AUD/USD, however, bids are still noted at 1.3310-20 with mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3270-80, followed by bigger stops below 1.3250. On the upside, offers are tipped from 1.3380 up to 1.3400 and sizeable offers remain at 1.3430-35 with combinations of offers and stops noted at 1.3460 and 1.3490-00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5630Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.5537, the subsequent strong rebound suggests caution on our short position entered at 1.5530 and intra-day resistance at 1.5665 needs to hold to retain bearishness for another decline. A break of said support would extend the fall from 1.5780 top to 1.5500, however, it is necessary to see a breach of 1.5469 support to signal the rebound from 1.5423 has indeed ended Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3330As the single currency has remained under pressure after breaking last Friday’s low at 1.3282, signalling the decline from 1.3550 top is still in progress and further weakness to 1.3245-50 would be seen. A sustained breach of this level would confirm the rebound from 1.3213 has ended and extend decline towards this level, then 1.3200 later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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