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Mid-Day Report: Muted Reaction to ISM Services Disappointment, Sentiments Firm on EuropeSentiments remain lifted by Italy's austerity measures as US stocks open higher following global equities rally. ISM manufacturing index came in weaker than expected with deterioration to 52 in November. Factory orders also dropped more than expected by -0.4% mom in October. Nonetheless, markets have little reactions to the data and DOW maintains around over 150 pts gains. Dollar remains mildly soft against other major currencies but downside is limited. Other data released today saw UK services PMI posted unexpected gain from 51.3 to 52.1 in November versus expectation of a drop to 40.7. The data suggests that the services sector has been somewhat picking up steam, despite at a modest rate. Eurozone services PMI was revised down to 47.5 in November, Sentix investor confidence dropped to -24 in D3ecember, retail sales rose 0.4% mom in October. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 77.72; (P) 77.90; (R1) 78.12; More. USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range today and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, the choppy structure of the recovery from 76.57 suggests it's corrective in nature, and is merely the second leg of the correction pattern from 79.52. Hence while above 78.28 will bring further rise, upside should be limited below 79.52 and bring another fall. On the upside, below 77.30 should flip bias to the downside for 76.57 and below. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has remained confined within narrow range after rebounding to an intra-day high of 1.3460 in part due to the release of better-than-expected French and Italian PMIs and also upbeat comments from Italy PM Monti, however, option-related offers are reported at 1.3470-80 (related to NY cut expires at 1.3470-80) and more selling interest from Middle East names is reported at 1.3500. On the downside, bids from various parties (including European and Asian names) are noted from 1.3400 down to 1.3370 with stops building up below 1.3360, 1.3350 and 1.3330. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 77.30Although the greenback has retreated again after faltering below indicated previous resistance at 78.16 and consolidation below this level would take place, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 77.73) should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Above said resistance at 78.16 would add credence to our view that correction from 78.29 has ended and bring retest of this level. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8650Although the single currency has retreated after Friday’s rise to 0.8620, as long as 0.8560-65 holds, near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 0.8521 to extend gain to 0.8545-50, however, as outlook remains consolidative, reckon resistance at 0.8665 would cap upside and bring another decline later. We are keeping our bearish count that the wave 2 is unfolding as a complex correction Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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