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Daily Report: Sentiments Reversed Again as Expectations for EU Summit ChangeNews from Eurozone continues to drive markets up and down. This time, sentiments were hurt by reports that France and Germany are clearly still having diverged stance on the role of ECB in solving the debt crisis. France is still pushing the proposal to have the EFSF turned into a bank licensed with ECB for leveraging the capacity. But Germany maintained its opposition to this idea. And European officials are playing down the expectation for this weekend's EU summit. German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that 'it won't be the final point where we regain the confidence of others, but it will be a stepping stone, a marker on the road' and 'all of the sins of omission and commission of the past cannot be undone by waving a magic wand'. EC President Jose Barroso also said that 'even if we do arrive at a political decision on everything that's on the table, which I hope we will, that doesn't necessarily mean that there will not then have to be an implementing phase'. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 105.15; (P) 105.84; (R1) 106.36; More At this point, we're still favoring the case that EUR/JPY's rebound from 100.74 is finished at 107.67 already. Below 104.77 will extend the fall from 107.67 to retest 100.74 low first. On the upside, though, above 107.67 will invalidate this immediate bearish view and bring another rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 123.31 to 100.74 at 109.36 to finish off the rebound. |
| Special Report |
US Economic Condition Improved Slightly, Far from OptimisticThe US monthly Beige Book covering the period on the before October 7 indicated that many districts described the pace of growth as 'modest' or 'slight' and there was higher uncertainty for business decision making, although economic activities continued to expand. Consumer spending improved 'slightly' in most districts as driven by auto sales and tourism. Business spending also increased due to the rise in expenditure in construction and mining equipment and auto dealer inventories. Yet, restraints in hiring and capital spending remained. While the October report may be slightly better than the previous one, economic outlook on the US remained uncertain and is highly determined by global factors. BOE Voted Unanimously To Expand Asset Purchase, May Add Depending On Economic ConditionsMPC members voted unanimously to expand the asset purchase program by +75B pound to 275B pound as well as to leave the Bank rate at 0.5% in October. The minutes also unveiled that policymakers considered a range of asset purchases of between 50B-100B pound, signaling more buying may come after the current program expires in February. The pound fell against the euro after the report as extension of BOE's QE2 would trigger depreciation in the pound. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped again after yesterday's fall from 1.3870, more and more traders are worrying that the EU summit may not be able to provide solid solutions to the EU debt crisis, bids at 1.3720-30 were absorbed and stops below 1.3720 and 1.3700 were tripped. Risk aversion also put pressure on euro and more stops are placed below 1.3670 (fair size bids above this level) but buying interest from Asian names should emerge around 1.3650. On the upside, offers from various names are lined up from 1.3730 up to 1.3750 and mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.3780/85, larger size selling interest is expected around 1.3850-60 with stops building up above 1.3875-80 and 1.3900 (option barrier). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Target met and stand asideThe greenback rallied in line with our expectation and our long position entered at 0.8950 met indicated upside target at 0.9050 this morning, although gain to 0.9101 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9319 to 0.8882) is likely, only a sustained breach of resistance at 0.9122 would signal the fall from 0.9319 top has ended at 0.8882 and bring further gain to 0.9147-52 (previous support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) which is likely to hold from here. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.40The greenback faltered below indicated near term upper range at 76.91, retaining our view that near term downside risk remains for the retreat from 77.46 to extend marginal weakness below 76.60, however, support at 76.31 (last week’s low) should hold from here and bring another rebound later. A breach of the upper Kumo (now at 77.03) would suggest the retreat from 77.46 has possibly ended and bring another test of resistance at 77.46-49 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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