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Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Steady, But No Fuel For Further Risk RallySentiments continue to be supported by talk that European leaders are considering recapitalization plan for banks and speculation is supported by comments from IMF. European stocks recover broadly with FTSE up 2.2%, DAX up 3.1% and CAC up 2.7% at the time of writing. But, there is nothing more than that and mixed economic data provide little inspiration to the markets. Major currencies are struggling to extend yesterday's gains against the greenback. US stocks also fail to extend yesterday's gain so far and open mildly lower. And we'd maintain that markets are just in consolidation ahead of tomorrow's ECB rate decisions and Friday's NFP. The trend hasn't reversed yet. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9113; (P) 0.9188; (R1) 0.9230; More... Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 0.9261 temporary top. But note again that break of 0.8917 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in near term. Above 0.9261 will extend recent rally towards 161.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.8246 from 0.7710 at 0.9621 next. However, break of 0.8917 should bring deeper pull back to 0.8647 support and below. |
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| Special Report |
RBA Turns Dovish, Rate Cut Stance LoomsAs expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. Yet the post-meeting statement came in more dovish than the previous one. Governor Glenn Stevens downplayed impacts of recent deterioration US and European outlook. Nevertheless, it now appears more likely that the central bank will consider a rate cut in coming months if inflation is under control. We retain our view that a rate cut will be carried out in the fourth quarter. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency survives the release of weaker-than-expected eurozone retail sales and services PMI on rumors of ECB buying Italian bonds, however, the pair ran into fresh offers again at 1.3375/80 and has retreated in part due to the release of better-than-expected U.S. ADP job data. At the moment, good size offers from U.S. investment house are still noted at 1.3375-80 and further out at 1.3400-10 with stops seen above both levels. On the downside, bids from U.S. custodian name are tipped from 1.3280 down to 1.3250 with stops building up below latter level, option related orders (1.3350 NY cut) are working the rounds too. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9100Although the greenback has rebounded again after intra-day brief retreat to 0.9152, a break of yesterday’s high of 0.9261 is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 0.9300, otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another retreat cannot be ruled out. Below said support would bring another test of 0.9148, break would extend retracement towards 0.9090 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8918-0.9261) but renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.9460Despite yesterday’s resumption of decline to 0.9388, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to 0.9650, however, break of this week’s high of 0.9700 is needed to signal a temporary low is formed (tentatively wave iii) and bring retracement towards 0.9800 but resistance at 0.9879 is likely to limit upside and bring another decline later in wave v. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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