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Daily Report: Could Non-Farm Payroll Extend Risk Rally?After a dramatic week of rebound in risks, markets are turning focus to whether the US non-farm payroll report would provide the needed fuel to extend these few days' rally. Economists are expecting a modest 53k expansion in the job market in September while unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 9.1%. The leading indicators to NFP are rather mixed. The employment component of the ISM manufacturing index showed encourage improvement from 51.8 to 53.8 in September. However, employment component in ISM services, which accounts for 70% of US economy, deteriorated sharply from 51.6 to 48.7. ADP employment showed 91k expansion in the private sector while initially jobless claims showed some slightly improvements in the past few weeks. How the Challenger report showed a dramatic 211% jump in planned layoffs. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0335; (P) 1.0408; (R1) 1.0447; More. USD/CAD's pull back from 1.0656 short term top is still in progress and would be extending to 38.2% retracement of 0.9725 to 1.0656 at 1.0300 and below. But we'd expect strong support from 50% retracement at 1.0191 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 1.0482 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0656. After all, more consolidations would be seen below 1.0656 would be seen before rally from 0.9406 resumes towards 1.0803 medium term fibonacci level. |
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| Special Report |
ECB Resumes Covered bond Purchases, Leaves Rates UnchangedThe ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1.5% in October. However, a series of liquidity provision measures, including LTROs, MROs and the most awaited covered bond purchases program, were announced. The central bank remained cautious towards the economic outlook as there are 'intensified downside risks'. Moreover, 'ongoing tensions in financial markets and unfavorable effects on financing conditions are likely to dampen the pace of economic growth in the euro area in the second half of this year'. BOE Increases Asset Bond Purchases to 275B PoundThe BOE surprised the market by increasing the bond purchase program by +75B pound to 275B pound in response to the dramatic deterioration in global economic outlook. The Bank rate was kept at 0.5%, though. The central bank was in a dilemma on whether to tighten or to ease as the UK’s economy has been torn between dismal growth and high inflation. Reactivation of bond purchases was based on the belief that inflation will undershoot the 2% target in the medium-term due to 'the deterioration in the outlook’. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency staged a strong rebound from yesterday's low of 1.3242 on short-squeezing after ECB kept rate on hold and announced additional measures (to buy 40 bln of covered bonds) to help banking sector, then stop-hunting activities pushed euro even high and triggered, stops above 1.3400, more stops are reported above 1.3450/55 but decent offers are located at 1.3450, 1.3480 (from German names) and further out at 1.3500 where bigger stops are placed above. On the downside, bids from European names are lined up (still noted stop-hunting activities targeting for stops above 1.3450/55) from 1.3400 down to 1.3370. Option expires today include: 1..3465 (100 mln), 1.3500 (500 mln) and 1.3600 (200 mln). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.35As the greenback has remained under pressure after meeting renewed selling at 77.07 earlier this week, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the retreat from 77.27 to extend marginal weakness to 76.34, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, reckon downside would be limited and support at 76.10 should hold, bring another rebound later. Only a break of resistance at 77.27-34 would retain bullishness, then the greenback should stage another leg of major correction from record low of 75.94 for further gain to 77.60 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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