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Mid-Day Report: Risk Selloff Intensifies again as Bank Shares Tumble on Contagion and GreeceMarkets are clearly responding very negatively to EU's message that they're reviewing private sector involvement in Greece's second bailout. There are also additional concerns on contagion after Moody's warned of Franco-Belgian financial groups Dexia's exposure to Greece. Banks shares led European stocks lower with FTSE down -2.7%, DAX down -3.3%, CAC down -3.3% at the time of writing. US stocks also open lower with DOW quickly losing over -180 pts within 20 minutes. Commodities also tumble with CRB index losing another -2.1 pts and is heading closing to 290 level. More importantly, note that Crude oil finally takes out 75.71 key near term support level which should now pave the way to 70 psychological level. Fed chairman Bernanke vowed in his testimony to Joint Economic Committee that Fed is prepared to take further action as needed. But that provides no relief to markets. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5374; (P) 1.5480; (R1) 1.5532; More. GBP/USD's fall from 1.5715 is still in progress and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 1.5327 support. Break will confirm resumption of recent fall from 1.6746 and should target 161.8% projection of 1.6746 to 1.5780 from 1.6618 at 1.5055 next. on the upside, above 1.5483 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring extend the consolidation from 1.5327 with another recovery. But even in that case, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6618 to 1.5327 at 1.5820 and bring fall resumption eventually. |
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RBA Turns Dovish, Rate Cut Stance LoomsAs expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. Yet the post-meeting statement came in more dovish than the previous one. Governor Glenn Stevens downplayed impacts of recent deterioration US and European outlook. Nevertheless, it now appears more likely that the central bank will consider a rate cut in coming months if inflation is under control. We retain our view that a rate cut will be carried out in the fourth quarter. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound slipped again in part due to the release of slightly worse-than-expected UK Sept construction PMI (50.1 vs forecast of 51.6), stops below 1.5420 and 1.5390 were triggered, cross-selling due to risk aversion also seen pressuring sterling and mixture of bids and stops at 1.5350 is in focus and more stops are tipped below 1.5320 and 1.5300 (option barrier) with bids from Asian CBs, real money accounts and model funds seen above these stop-loss levels. On the upside, offers from various parties are lined up from 1.5400 up to 1.5420 and further out at 1.5450-60 with stops only emerging above 1.5470 and 1.5500. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5500As the British pound has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interest just below the Kijun-Sen, suggesting the decline from 1.5716 is still in progress and further weakness to 1.5350 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon previous support at 1.5326 would hold from here, bring a corrective rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 102.50Euro’s selloff after breaking support at 101.95 confirms our view that recent decline is still in progress as wave (3) and further weakness towards 100.50/55 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon psychological support at 100.00 would hold from here, bring a corrective rebound later this week. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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