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Daily Report: Risk Lifted by Bank Recapitalization Talk, Hit by Italy Downgrade. Markets Turn into ConsolidationRisk sentiments was given a strong boost overnight on talk of bank recapitalization plan in Europe. And that sent back above 1.33 level while giving DOW a strong rebound from intraday low of 10404 to close at 10808, up 153 pts. However, risk rebounds halted after Moody's cut Italy's credit rating by three notches after US markets closed. EUR/USD then hovers around 1.33 while Asian equities are generally soft. It looks like market has turned into consolidation and traders would wait for tomorrow's ECB press conference and Friday's US NFP before placing another bet. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0464; (P) 1.0561; (R1) 1.0610; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1.0656 in USD/CAD and intraday bias is turned neutral. Also, note mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, 1.0656 might be a near term top too, ahead of 161.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.0009 from 0.9725 at 1.0701. Below 1.0431 will bring deeper pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0356) and below. Though, in that case, we'd expect strong support from 1.0142 to contain downside and bring another rise. Above 1.0656 will resume recent rise from 0.9406 towards 1.0803 medium term fibonacci level. |
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| Special Report |
RBA Turns Dovish, Rate Cut Stance LoomsAs expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. Yet the post-meeting statement came in more dovish than the previous one. Governor Glenn Stevens downplayed impacts of recent deterioration US and European outlook. Nevertheless, it now appears more likely that the central bank will consider a rate cut in coming months if inflation is under control. We retain our view that a rate cut will be carried out in the fourth quarter. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency rebounded overnight on news of European bank recapitalization plan, hit a high of 1.3370 in late New York trading. Rumor that the SNB is about to raise the EUR/CHF minimum rate again (from 1.20 to 1.30) also seen supporting the pair, however, euro then retreated as Moody’s downgraded Italy rating by 3 notches. At the moment, good size bids from Asian CBs are reported at 1.3250 and also 1.3230 with stops placed below latter level whilst offers are tipped at 1.3360-70 and further out at 1.3400 (option expiry) with stops located above both levels. Option expires today include: 1.3200 (100 mln), 1.3300 (100 mln), 1.3340 (100 mln), 1.3400 (100 mln) and 1.3425 (100 mln). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9100Despite overnight retreat to 0.9148, as the greenback has rebounded after finding renewed buying interest just above the Ichimoku cloud top, suggesting a retest of yesterday’s high of 0.9261, however, break there is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 0.9300, otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another retreat cannot be ruled out. Below said support would bring retracement towards 0.9090-96 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.35Despite overnight rebound to 76.98, as the greenback has retreated after running into renewed selling interest there, retaining our view that near term downside risk remains for the fall from temporary top at 77.27 to extend weakness towards previous support at 76.34, however, support at 76.10 should hold and bring another rebound later. A sustained breach of 76.98-77.00 level would bring a retest of resistance at 77.27 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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