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Daily Report: Yen Tumbles as Japan Intervene for the Third Time This Year, USD/JPY Pressing 80Japanese yen dives sharp today as Japan intervened for the third time this year. That sent USD/JPY steeply up from record low of 75.56 to as high as 79.50 within two hours. And judging from the price actions, the intervention was done in multiple shot and has been quite persistent. Finance minister confirmed the unilateral intervention and noted in a press conference that he has already warned of "decisive steps" against speculative moves, and thus, he ordered intervention at around 10:25 am Japan time. Azumi also noted that he will continue the move until he's satisfied but didn't mention the target level. |
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USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 75.65; (P) 75.83; (R1) 75.98; More. USD/JPY jumps sharply on intervention today and reaches as high as 79.52 so far. The strong break of 77.48 resistance as well as the near term falling channel indicates that whole decline from 85.51 should be finished. Near term outlook is turned bullish for 80.23 resistance first and break will target 61.8% retracement of 85.51 to 75.56 at 81.70. On the downside, in case of retreat, we'd expect strong support above 77.48 resistance turned support to contain downside and bring another rise. |
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Fed to Hold Policy Stance Unchanged, Focus on Improving CommunicationAt the November FOMC meeting, the Fed will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% and will not announce additional easing measures as recent economic data improved. Yet, the focus lies on policymakers' discussion about ways of increasing transparency and tools to boost growth when needed. At the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke will assure the market that the stimulus currently in place is sufficient and the Fed will promptly implement further easing measures should the recovery disappoint. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The pair definitely took the center stage today, after hitting record high of 75.31 this morning in thin trading, MOF/BOJ stepped up and intervened to sell yen at 01:25GMT, although the greenback retreated once after running into offers from exporters ahead of 79.00 level, Japanese officials showed their they are determined to fight against ongoing speculative action against the yen and sold yen again below 78.00 level, pushed the pair to as high as 79.55. MOF Azumi confirmed the solo intervention but did not comment on the size (traders cited the size should be massive). Traders are closely watching whether MOF is able to break through previous post-intervention high of 80.25 and offers from exporters are still noted from 79.60 up to 80.00 with stops expected above 80.30 and 80.50-60. On the downside, bids from BOJ are tipped at 79.20 and more buying interest should emerge around 78.60-70, 78.00 and also 77.60-70 with some stops seen below 77.50. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6060Despite Friday’s marginal rise to 1.6153, the subsequent selloff on dollar’s broad-based rebound suggests a temporary top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.5954/55 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5631-1.6153 and previous minor support), however, break there is needed to add credence to this view and bring a stronger retracement of recent rise to 1.5915-20 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.80Although the greenback slipped to a fresh record low of 75.31 (what a pity, we recommended to buy at 75.30), BOJ finally stepped up and sold yen on behalf of MOF, lifted the pair sharply higher to as high as 79.55 before easing. Current retreat suggests consolidation below said resistance would take place and pullback to 78.50 cannot be ruled out, however, the convergence of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now both at 77.55) should limit downside and bring another rally later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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