Action Insight Daily Report 8-14-09

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Action Insight Daily Report Markets Mixed in Tight Range, Focus on US CPI Dollar pares some of its overnight losses and remains in tight range against most major currencies in Asia today. Near term support levels in most pairs are still holding well for the moment and hence, there is generally no change in the anticipation of another round of dollar rally in near term. But the depth of the pull back is dampening the case the bullish a bottom in the greenback in formed and lowered the confidence on this case. Adding to the mix is the yesterday's sharp decline in treasury yield which gave the Japanese yen additional boost. Markets will look into inflation from US today for inspirations on what's next. Full Report Here... Special Report Event to Watch: US Consumer Price Index US CPI - July: Headline CPI should have been flat on monthly basis after a sharp +0.7% gain in June. Declines in gasoline and natural gas priced were offset by increase in prices of food core items. On annual basis, the reading probably dropped -2.1% following a -1.4% decline in the previous month. Full Report Here... Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4180 As the single currency has retreated after rising to as high as 1.4328 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation below there would take place and pullback to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4227), then the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4207), however, renewed buying interest should emerge above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4086-1.4328 at 1.4178) and bring another rally later. Above 1.4328/30 would extend to 1.4380 but resistance at 1.4415 (last Friday's high) should cap upside. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 94.20 Although dollar's break of support at 95.12 suggests the decline from 97.79 is still in progress and further fall to 94.63 and then 94.36 is likely, as hourly oscillators are already in oversold territory, downside should be limited to 94.01/04 (previous support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 91.73-97.79) and the greenback shall stage a strong rebound from there later. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0650 Although dollar has recovered after falling to 1.0674 yesterday and marginal gain to the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0749) cannot be ruled out, only above 1.0780-91 (current level of Kijun-Sen and previous support) would signal the fall from 1.0885 has ended and bring further gain to 1.0850, then retest of 1.0885, otherwise, one more decline to 1.0650 cannot be ruled out. Having said that, if our view a low has been formed at 1.0563 is correct, downside would be limited and bring another strong rebound later. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6715 Despite yesterday's anticipated retreat from 1.6670, sterling needs to break below 1.6470/75 to signal the recovery from 1.6391 has ended there and bring further fall to 1.6425/27 but only a drop below there would confirm the decline from 1.7044 has resumed and extend to 1.6338 support level later (probably early next week). Above 1.6670 would bring stronger correction of the decline from 1.7044 towards 1.6717/19 ( 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.7044 to 1.6391 and previous resistance) and bring another selloff. Full Report Here... Featured Technical Report Market Highlights AUD/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8349; (P) 0.8401; (R1) 0.8483; More AUD/USD edges to new high of 0.8476 earlier today and further rally might still be seen with 0.8366 minor support intact. Nevertheless, we still believe upside potential is limited and will continue to look for reversal signal as AUD/USD hits 0.8519 key resistance. On the downside, below 0.8366 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a test of 0.8179 support next. Break there will indicate that whole rise from 0.7702 has completed and will turn short term outlook bearish. Read more... All Technical Outlook Reports EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook Daily Top Movers Top 5 Current Last Change (Pips) Change (%) GBPJPY 157.16 158.28 -112 -0.71% CHFJPY 88.70 89.21 -51 -0.57% AUDJPY 80.03 80.49 -46 -0.57% CADJPY 87.31 87.79 -48 -0.55% EURJPY 135.75 136.44 -69 -0.51% Last Updated: Aug 14, 07:30 GMT Currency Heat Map Daily View USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD USD EUR JPY GBP Last Updated: Aug 14, 07:30 GMT Economic Indicators Update GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.10% -0.30% 0.80% 0.70% 22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Jun -0.40% -0.50% 1.60% -1.50% 23:30 AUD RBA Governor's Semi-Annual Parliament Testimony -- -- 23:50 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes -- -- 23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jun 0.10% -0.30% -0.10% -0.30% 9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Jul -0.60% 0.20% 9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul -0.60% -0.60% 9:00 EUR Eurozone Core CPI Y/Y Jul 1.30% 1.40% 12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jun -0.30% -6.00% 12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Jun -1.00% 1.00% 12:30 USD CPI M/M Jul 0.00% 0.70% 12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jul -1.90% -1.40% 12:30 USD Core CPI M/M Jul 0.20% 0.20% 12:30 USD Core CPI Y/Y Jul 1.60% 1.70% 13:15 USD Industrial Production Jul 0.20% -0.40% 13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jul 68.10% 68.00% 14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Aug P 69 66 Suggested Readings Fundamental Highlights Mr. Stevens During His Testimony Indicates That Raising Rates Is Inevitable In The Close Future Signs Of Risk Aversion? Mixed Signals From Europe/US On The Data Front Prevent A Breakout Of Recent Ranges Unsustainable Appetite in FX, Equities & Oil JPY Rallies, USD Rebounds as Retail Sales Decline Technical Highlights EURUSD, AUDUSD, EURCHF Daily Outlook Forex Technical Update Technical Analysis for Crosses Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

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