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Thursday, August 20, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 8-20-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Soft but May Regain Strength Soon

Dollar and yen pulled back sharply overnight following sharp rebound in commodities and subsequent energy led stocks rebound. Both currencies are still soft today on follow through rebound in Asian stock markets. However, note that key near term levels in dollar and yen pairs are still holding in general and there is no structure change in the bullish near term trend yet. Both currencies should be staging for a rebound at current level if recent rise is going to resume. Among the major pairs and crosses, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are still the weakest so far this week and will probably lead the way in case of another round of risk aversion trades.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0765

Our recommendation to exit long proved to be correct as intra-day decline gathered momentum and the greenback dropped to as low as 1.0623 before recovering. This sharp fall suggests the decline from 1.0885 is still in progress and further weakness towards 1.0600 is likely, however, only break of support at 1.0563 would signal downtrend has resumed, otherwise, further choppy consolidation would take place.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6380

Yesterday's rebound from 1.6375 suggests further consolidation above 1.6275 support would take place but a clear break of resistance at 1.6594 is needed to add credence to our view that low has been formed at 1.6275 and bring correction of recent decline from 1.7044 to the resistance at 1.6670 (this is also just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire fall from 1.7044 to 1.6275 at 1.6660) and later towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6717)

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4155

The rally from 1.4084 yesterday to 1.4268 signals the decline from 1.4448 has formed a low at 1.4045 earlier and although the single currency has eased after failing to break above the Ichimoku cloud top and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4176) is likely, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.4154 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4084 to 1.4268) and bring another rise later. Above 1.4268 resistance would extend the upmove from 1.4045 towards resistance at 1.4328.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Exit Long Entered At 93.70 And Buy At 94.00

The greenback did drop marginally below 93.73 to 93.66 and as indicated in our previous update, dollar found decent demand from there and staged a rebound since New York afternoon, suggesting a temporary low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with upside bias remains for correction of recent decline to 94.86 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 96.80 to 93.66) but it is necessary to see a break of 95.30 resistance to confirm the decline from 97.79 has ended, then gain to 95.73 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 93.66) would follow.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6403; (P) 1.6497; (R1) 1.6622; More

GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.6274 is still in progress and another rise cannot be ruled out. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 1.6663 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6375 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and further break of 1.6274 will indicate that decline from 1.7043 has resumed. Prior break of 1.6338 support serves as an important alert that a medium term top is in place at 1.7043. Below 1.6274 will target 1.5983 support to confirm the bearish case. However, note that sustained break of 1.6663 will firstly suggest that whole fall from 1.7043 has completed and will open up the case for stronger rally to retest this high.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 63.73 63.36 +37 +0.58%
AUDJPY 78.34 77.93 +41 +0.52%
GBPJPY 156.11 155.44 +67 +0.43%
AUDCAD 0.9104 0.9073 +31 +0.34%
NZDUSD 0.6758 0.6736 +22 +0.33%

Last Updated: Aug 20, 07:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 20, 07:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
6:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jul 2.35B 1.79B 1.57B
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.40% 1.20%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Jul 2.80% 2.90%
8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul 0.5B 13.0B
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jul P 0.20% -0.20%
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jul P 13.30% 13.80%
9:00 CHF ZEW Expectations Aug -- 0
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jun -0.10% -0.30%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 550K 558K
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Jul 0.60% 0.70%
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey Aug -2 -7.5
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 57B 63B
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