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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

FOREX Analysis Daily || Action Insight Daily Report 8-11-09

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Retreats Mildly, Yen Crosses Pressing Near Term Support

Dollar stabilizes in Asia and retreats mildly in early European trading after another round of buying in last US session. Yen followed and extended gain following weaker than expected industrial production data from China which nevertheless showed 10.8% yoy gain. Nevertheless, yen crosses lost steam after hitting near term support levels. Some consolidations would likely be seen today as traders would probably lighten positions ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement. After all, Sterling remains the biggest loser this week so far while Canadian dollar is catching up as crude oil's rally stalls at 70 level.

Full Report Here...

Special Reports

Preview On FOMC Meeting: Less Dovish Tone Anticipated

The FOMC meeting on August 12 is the highlight of the week and the several things we will be focusing on are 1) How will the Fed handle the asset purchase program which will expire in September; 2) if the Fed will drop the statement that 'the Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period' and 3) any change on the Fed's forecasts given recent improvements in economic data.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0750

Despite rising to 1.0885 yesterday, as dollar has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 1.0891, suggesting consolidation below there would take place and retracement of the rise from 1.0576 to 1.0768 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0576 to 1.0885) is likely, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0749) would limit downside and 1.0731 (50% Fibonacci retracement) should contain downside and bring another rally. Above 1.0891 would extend the rise from 1.0563 low towards 1.0935/40.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6600

The British pound tumbled to as low as 1.6431 yesterday and although the recovery from there suggests minor consolidation would take place, upside should be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.6576) and renewed selling should emerge below 1.6634 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6837 to 1.6431) and bring another decline. Below said support would extend towards 1.6388 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5983 to 1.7044) but support at 1.6338 would remain intact.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4250

Despite falling to as low as 1.4104 yesterday, the 'doji' star formed there together with the subsequent recovery suggest minor consolidation above this level would take place and recovery to 1.4219/23 (previous resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4415 to 1.4104 respectively and also just below the Ichimoku cloud bottom at 1.4226) is likely, however, renewed selling should emerge below 1.4260 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4415 to 1.4104) and bring another decline. Below said support would extend marginal decline but as hourly oscillators are showing bullish convergence already, downside should be limited to 1.4067 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.3832) and price would stay well above chart support at 1.4007.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold Long Entered At 96.70

Although the greenback retreated to 96.55 this morning, as long as price is able to hold above 96.10-21 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 95.05 to 97.79 and current level of the Kijun-Sen), bullishness remains for recent rise to resume after consolidation. Above last Friday's high at 97.79 would extend upmove from 91.73 to 98.00 and possibly towards 98.40/50 but strong resistance at 98.90 should hold from there and bring pullback later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.62; (P) 137.64; (R1) 138.36; More.

EUR/JPY's pullback from 138.70 extended further today and touching of 136.47 support, together with mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, suggests that a short term top is likely in place. Risk is turns to the downside and break of near term trend line support (now at 136.36) will bring deeper fall to 132.77 support or below. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, short term outlook will now stay neutral as long as 138.70/139.21 resistance zone holds.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 65.36 65.69 -33 -0.50%
CADJPY 88.81 89.17 -36 -0.41%
USDJPY 96.74 97.13 -39 -0.40%
GBPJPY 159.57 160.07 -50 -0.31%
AUDJPY 81.07 81.32 -25 -0.31%

Last Updated: Aug 11, 07:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View


USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD






EUR






JPY






GBP






Last Updated: Aug 11, 07:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Jul -8.10% -9.40% -18.10% -17.60%
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Jul 1.80% -- 1.40%
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jul 10 -- 4
3:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
5:00 JPY Households Confidence Jul 39.4 39.2 37.6
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul F -0.50% 0.30% 0.90%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul F -10.60% -9.70% -8.80%
8:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jun
-6.200B -6.263B
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Jul
141.4K 140.7K
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q2 P
5.50% 1.60%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 P
-2.50% 3.00%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jun
-0.90% -0.80%
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