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Friday, August 21, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-21-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Sharply Lower Following Eurozone and US Data

Dollar is sharply lower today on the back of strength in Euro as well as commodities. In particular, crude oil climbs to new high of 74.48 which indicates that medium term rebound isn't over yet. Stocks open higher with DOW back above 9400 level and and makes a new high following stronger than expected existing home sales which rose to 5.24M in July. Yen remains in tight range against most majors though, supported by strength against dollar.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

As indicated in our previous update that the retreat from 138.72 signals the wave i of wave 3 has ended there and further consolidation below there would take place, however, we still think downside would be limited to 131.48 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave i from 127.00 to 138.72) and 130.00 should hold and bring wave iii of 3 later.

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Failure to extend early rebound from 1.0563 and the sharp retreat from 1.0885 suggests the (c) from 1.1967 is still in progress and break of said support would extend marginally to 1.0451 (50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026), however, as long as 1.0370 support holds, we are still holding our view of a triangle wave b count.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

NZDUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The New Zealand dollar found renewed buying interest just above the Ichimoku cloud top (resistance turned to support) and rose to fresh 2009 high of 0.6888, suggesting as long as the Tenkan-Sen (now at0.6542) holds, the upmove from this year's low of 0.4895 would extend towards psychological resistance at 0.7000, however, the currency pair is likely to falter below 0.7244 (1.618 times projection of 0.4895-0.5981 measuring from 0.5487) and risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

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EURJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The retreat from 138.72 signals upmove from 112.08 is not ready to resume yet and further consolidation within recent range of 127.00-139.26 would take place, although euro has already tested back the Tenkan-Sen, downside should be limited the convergence of Ichimoku cloud bottom and Kijun-Sen (now at 129.15/16) and bring another rebound. However, break of 138.72 resistance is needed to bring resumption of aforesaid rise for retest of 139.26, then to 141.03 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 169.97-112.08 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) and later towards 143.80 (61.8% projection of 112.08 to 139.26 measuring from 127.00).

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4210; (P) 1.4243; (R1) 1.4285; More

EUR/USD's rise from 1.4050 extends further to as high as 1.4351 in early US session. Break of 1.4326 resistance indicates that fall from 1.4446 has completed with three waves down to 1.4045 already and the corrective structure in turn indicates that medium term rally is still in progress for another high above 1.4446. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.4208 support holds and EUR/USD will target a retest of 1.4446 first.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDUSD 0.6837 0.6768 +69 +1.01%
USDJPY 93.53 94.18 -65 -0.69%
EURUSD 1.4333 1.4253 +80 +0.56%
USDCHF 1.0576 1.0628 -52 -0.49%
AUDUSD 0.8353 0.8313 +40 +0.48%

Last Updated: Aug 21, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 21, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Aug P 47 45.7
07:30 EUR German PMI Services Aug P 48.6 48.1
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Aug P 47.5 46.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Aug P 46.5 45.7
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jul 5.00M 4.89M
14:00 USD Bernanke Speaks at Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Conference -- --
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