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Friday, August 28, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-28-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Markets Lack Direction, Dollar Soft in Tight Range

Markets continue to lack a clear direction in early US session. Dollar remains soft in tight range while yen is trying to firm up a bit. Aussie edges further higher but Canadian dollar lags behind as crude oil softens a bit. US Personal income was flat in July versus expectation of 0.1% growth. spending rose 0.2%, inline with consensus. PCE deflator dropped less than expected by -0.8% yoy while core PC also slowed less than expected to 1.4% yoy. U of Michigan consumer sentiment was revised higher to 65.7 in Aug.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

The single currency continued to trade in a near term narrow range and we are holding our count that the wave i of wave 3 has ended there and further consolidation would take place. If price drops below 132.17 support, stronger correction in wave ii would bring fall to 131.48 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave i from 127.00 to 138.72) but 130.00 should limit downside and bring wave iii of 3 later.

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

As indicated in our previous update, the wave (c) from 1.1967 is still in progress and the currency pair just made another 8-month low at 1.0529 yesterday, however, the pattern of the move from 1.0935 suggests a possible diagonal triangle wave v is unfolding and marginal fall to 1.0451 (50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026) cannot be ruled out, however, as long as 1.0370 support holds, we are still holding our view of a triangle wave b count.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EURJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Despite falling to 132.17 last week, the rebound from there formed a small 'hammer' candlestick pattern on the weekly chart and although euro has retreated this week, as longh as this support level holds, mild upside bias is seen for another bounce to 136.22 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 138.72 to 132.17), however, it is necessary to see a break of 138.72 resistance to signal the rise from 112.08 has resumed for retest of 139.26, then 141.03 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 169.97-112.08 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), otherwise, further consolidation within recent range of 127.00-139.26 would take place.

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EURCAD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

As the single currency has continued to trade narrowly above 1.5186, suggesting further consolidation would take place and although mild upside bias is seen for gain to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.5757), upside should be limited to 1.6000 and bring another decline later. Break of said support would extend the fall from 1.7509 to 1.5106 (100% projection of 1.7509-1.5642 measuring from 1.6973), then 1.4901 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3289 to 1.7509) but support at 1.4702-19 (100% projection of 1.6973-1.5346 measuring from 1.6329 and previous chart support) should remain intact.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 93.04; (P) 93.67; (R1) 94.12; More.

With an intraday low in place at 93.21, some more consolidation could be seen in USD/JPY. Nevertheless, while another rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 95.05 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 93.21 will target 91.73 low next.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDNZD 1.2279 1.2203 +76 +0.62%
AUDJPY 78.92 78.46 +46 +0.58%
AUDUSD 0.8436 0.8393 +43 +0.51%
EURAUD 1.7019 1.7085 -66 -0.39%
CADJPY 86.29 85.96 +33 +0.38%

Last Updated: Aug 28, 14:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 28, 14:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Aug -25 -24 -25
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jul 5.70% 5.50% 5.40%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jul -2.00% -0.50% 0.20%
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Jul -2.20% -2.20% -1.80%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Jul -2.20% -2.20% -1.70%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Aug -1.60% -1.80% -1.80%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Aug -1.90% -1.80% -1.70%
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.70% -0.80% -0.80%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q2 P -5.50% -5.60% -5.60%
08:30 GBP Index of Services (3M/3M) Jun -0.60% -0.60% -1.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug -22 -21 -23
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug 80.6 78 76
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -26 -28 -30
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Aug -11 -17 -18
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Aug -0.04 -0.59 -0.99 -0.85
12:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q2 -11.2B -$11.8B -$9.1B -7.73B
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jul -0.50% -0.50% 0.70% 0.50%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jul -3.80% -5.00% 6.20%
12:30 USD Personal Income Jul 0.00% 0.10% -1.30% -1.10%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul -0.80% -0.90% -0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jul 1.40% 1.30% 1.50%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment AUG F 65.7 64.5 63.2
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