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Monday, August 31, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 8-31-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Crosses Tumble on Falling Asian Stocks, More Downside Ahead

Japanese yen surges as the week start following broad based weakness in Asian equity markets. Opposition party DPJ won the Japanese national election by getting 308 of 480 lower-house seats. Nikkei reversed sharply from a new high of 10767 and closed at 10492, down -0.4% from last week's close. China Shanghai A shares fell sharply by -6.75% to close below 2800 level as markets are convinced that tightening is underway. Yen crosses are broadly lower with USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY taken out recent low and resumes recent fall. EUR/JPY is back pressing recent low of 132.17. On the other hand, dollar is lifted but the strength is limited so far as crude oil and gold are still steady.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0690

As dollar has rebounded after finding renewed buying above indicated support at 1.0529 (with a long lower shadow), price just tested the Ichimoku cloud bottom and further correction towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0694) cannot be ruled out, however, resistance at 1.0717 should limit upside and bring another selloff later. Below said support would extend recent decline towards 1.0500 but downside should be limited to 1.0451 (50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026).

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6350

Despite rebounding to 1.6382 last Friday, the sharp retreat from there suggests the correction from 1.6153 has ended there and recent decline from 1.7044 top should resume for retest of 1.6153, break there would extend to 1.6120/30, however, loss of downward momentum would limit downside to 1.6070/80 and chart support at 1.6033 would remain intact.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4350

The cross-inspired retreat suggests the rise from 1.4045 has formed a top at 1.4407 and as price has already broken the Ichimoku cloud top, suggesting a test of 1.4205-1.4211 (previous support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom respectively). However, it is necessary to see a clear break of this level to confirm the rise from 1.4045 has ended and bring further fall to 1.4183 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4045 to 1.4407), then 1.4150.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Exit Long Entered At 92.80

As the greenback has dropped sharply this morning on broad-based strength in Japanese yen after weekend election, suggesting further decline to 92.37 (61.8% projection of 97.79-93.42 measuring from 95.07) is likely, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 92.00 and chart support at 91.73 should hold from here.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 93.31; (P) 93.69; (R1) 93.97; More.

USD/JPY's fall resumed by taking out 93.21 low and reaches as low as 92.54 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and the current decline from 97.77 is expected to extend further to 91.73 low and below. On the upside, above 93.25 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 95.05 and bring fall resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 84.43 85.69 -126 -1.49%
AUDJPY 77.73 78.68 -95 -1.22%
GBPJPY 150.47 152.24 -177 -1.18%
NZDJPY 63.30 63.97 -67 -1.06%
EURJPY 132.57 133.86 -129 -0.97%

Last Updated: Aug 31, 08:25 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 31, 08:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI Aug 53.6 -- 50.4
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul P 1.90% 1.40% 2.40% 2.30%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul P -22.90% -23.10% -23.50%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jul -2.50% -3.30% -3.00% -2.90%
3:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Aug 34.2 -- 18.7
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jul -32.10% -30.30% -32.40%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Aug -0.30% -0.60%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jun 0.20% -0.50%
12:30 CAD GDP Annualized Q/Q Q2 -3.00% -5.40%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Aug 47.4 43.4
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