| Action Insight Mid-Day Report | Dollar and Yen Pare Gains ahead of FOMC Dollar and yen reverse earlier gains as traders are lightening up positions ahead of FOMC announcement today. It's believed that Fed may soften the dovish tone and acknowledge recent improvements in economic data, including improvements in the outlook of job markets. Nevertheless, Fed may need to retain the messages that rates will be kept at "exceptionally low" level for an "extended period" until there are more solid evidence that recovery is underway. In additional focus will be on how fed will handle the asset purchase program which will expire in September, as well as any change in economic forecasts. Dollar's rebound since last Friday was impressive and did raise the odds that it has bottomed out. Nevertheless, key resistance levels against major currencies are still intact and thus, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The fate of the greenback will very much depend on the tone of today's FOMC statement. Full Report Here... | | Special Reports | BOE Quarterly Inflation Report: Answer To The Riddle Of Stimulus Extension In its quarterly inflation report, the BOE stated that UK's inflation is at risk of undershooting the target of 2%, even based on the current ultra expansionary monetary policy. This also indicated that it's unlikely for the central bank to increase interest rate anytime soon. Full Report Here... Preview On FOMC Meeting: Less Dovish Tone Anticipated The FOMC meeting on August 12 is the highlight of the week and the several things we will be focusing on are 1) How will the Fed handle the asset purchase program which will expire in September; 2) if the Fed will drop the statement that 'the Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period' and 3) any change on the Fed's forecasts given recent improvements in economic data. Full Report Here... | | Elliott Wave Analysis | USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis The stronger-than-expected rebound from 1.0632 signals the wave v of larger degree wave c has possibly ended there and upside bias is seen for gain to 1.1307 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1725 to 1.0632), a daily close above there would add credence to this count and further rise to 1.1490 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2716 to 1.0632) would follow but resistance at 1.1725 (also just above 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2716 to 1.0632 at 1.1724). Full Report Here... EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Analysis Despite falling to 0.8454 last week, as the single currency has rebounded, suggesting further consolidation above 0.8400 would take place and gain to 0.8699 resistance cannot be ruled out, however, it is necessary to see a daily close above this resistance to signal low is possibly formed and bring rebound to 0.8800, then 0.8868 resistance (wave 4 top). Looking ahead, break there would confirm the wave 5 as well as wave C has ended, then stronger bounce to 0.9082 would follow. Full Report Here... | | Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis | AUDJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis Although the currency pair did resume the upmove from 2008 low of 55.06 as expected in our previous update and rose to fresh 2009 high of 82.00, aussie ran into offers there and has retreated back below the Ichimoku cloud top, suggesting consolidation would take place and pullback towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 76.39) is under way, however, a weekly close below there is needed to confirm a temporary top is in place and bring correction to 73.90/00 but support at 70.76 should remain intact. Full Report Here... AUDUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis Although the Australian dollar rose to a fresh 2009 high of 0.8471, as price has retreated from there partly due to cross-selling, leaving a 'doji' candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting a temporary top has possibly been formed there and if a long black candlestick is formed this week, this would confirm, bring correction to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.8086), then towards the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.7929). However, reckon support at 0.7700 would hold from here and bring rebound later. Full Report Here... | | Featured Technical Report | Market Highlights | EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4111; (P) 1.4148; (R1) 1.4186; More Break of 1.4185 minor resistance suggests that an intraday low is in place at 1.4086 and some consolidations should now be seen. Recovery could extend to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4225) and above, but upside is expected to be limited by 1.4328 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.4086 will target 1.4007 support next and break there will solidify the case that a medium term top is already in place and bring decline to 1.3747 support for confirmation. Read more... All Technical Outlook Reports | Daily Top Movers | Top 5 | Current | Last | Change
(Pips) | Change
(%) | | AUDCAD | 0.9061 | 0.9130 | -69 | -0.76% | | CHFJPY | 89.39 | 88.71 | +68 | +0.76% | | CADJPY | 87.73 | 87.10 | +63 | +0.72% | | EURAUD | 1.7163 | 1.7061 | +102 | +0.59% | | USDCHF | 1.0757 | 1.0817 | -60 | -0.56% | Last Updated: Aug 12, 14:00 GMT Currency Heat Map Daily View | USD | EUR | JPY | GBP | CHF | CAD | AUD | | USD | | | | | | | | | EUR | | | | | | | | | JPY | | | | | | | | | GBP | | | | | | | | Last Updated: Aug 12, 14:00 GMT | | Economic Indicators Update | | GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Revised | | 23:50 | JPY | Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jul | -8.50% | -8.70% | -6.60% | -6.70% | | 01:00 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence Aug | 3.70% | -- | 9.30% | | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Jun F | 2.30% | 2.40% | 2.40% | | | 05:00 | JPY | BoJ Monthly Report | | -- | -- | | | 08:30 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Jul | 24.9K | 28.0K | 23.8K | 21.5K | | 08:30 | GBP | Claimant Count Rate Jul | 4.90% | 4.90% | 4.80% | | | 08:30 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jun | 7.80% | 7.70% | 7.60% | | | 08:30 | GBP | Average Earnings inc bonus (3M/Y) Jun | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.30% | | | 08:30 | GBP | Average Earnings ex bonus (3M/Y) Jun | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.60% | | | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Unit Wage Cost (3M/Y) Jun | 6.60% | -- | 7.10% | 7.30% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jun | -0.60% | 0.20% | 0.50% | 0.60% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Jun | -17.00% | -16.40% | -17.00% | -17.60% | | 09:30 | GBP | BoE Quarterly Inflation Report | | -- | -- | | | 12:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) Jun | -0.1B | -0.5B | -1.4B | | | 12:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index M/M Jun | -0.20% | 0.00% | -0.10% | | | 12:30 | USD | Trade Balance Jun | -27B | -$28.5B | -$26.0B | | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | | 0.7M | 1.7M | | | 18:00 | USD | Federal Budget Statement Jul | | -$161.5B | -94.3B | | | 18:15 | USD | FOMC Rate Decision | | 0.25% | 0.25% | | | | Suggested Readings | Fundamental Highlights Technical Highlights | | | Forex Brokers | | | Sponsors | 
Attend The World MoneyShow Toronto, October 20-22 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre and meet world-renowned investment and trading experts and their specific advice that will help you manage your assets confidently and profitably in 2009 and beyond! FREE Registration here>> 
| |
No comments:
Post a Comment