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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-18-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Mid-Day Report: Dollar and Yen Lifted Mildly by Disappointing US Data

Dollar and yen rise mildly in early US session following worse than expected PPI report and new residential construction from US. Commodities are dragged mildly lower together with treasury yield too. Nevertheless, the strength is so far not strong enough to resume recent rally as stocks has muted reactions to the data and open slightly firmer. Some more consolidation would likely be seen be dollar and rise again.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Although sterling retreated after rising marginally to 163.00 earlier and consolidation below there is likely to be seen with mild downside bias for fall to 152.96 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 146.75 to 163.00), a daily close below 150.00 is needed to signal the second c leg of the wave 4 has ended at 163.00 and bring test of 146.75 support later.

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GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

The retreat from 1.7044 to 1.6275 yesterday adds credence to our view that the British pound has possibly formed a temporary top there earlier and correction towards 1.6000 is likely, however, a daily close below 1.5983 support is needed to confirm this view and bring stronger correction towards 1.5802 support and then 1.5690 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.3500 to 1.7044).

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

USDCHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The greenback has remained confined within a narrow range after making a marginal low at 1.0563 the week before, retaining our view that further consolidation above this possible temporary low would take place and mild upside bias remains, however, a weekly close above resistance at 1.1026 (this would also break the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom) is needed to confirm this view and bring correction of the intermediate fall from 1.1967 to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.1231), then 1.1265 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1967 to 1.0563 as well as current level of the Kijun-Sen).

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GBPUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The black candlestick followed by indicated shooting star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart adds credence to our view that a temporary top has been formed at 1.7044 and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for correction of recent upmove to 1.6100, then test of 1.5983 support and later towards 1.5721(50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4398 to 1.7044). However, price should stay well above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5349) and stage a strong rebound from there probably in late Q3.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4020; (P) 1.4106; (R1) 1.4168; More

Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged. Intraday bias remains on the downside with 1.4159 minor resistance intact. Fall from 1.4446 is still expected to continue to 1.4007 support next. Break there will solidify the case that a medium term top is already formed at 1.4446 and turn focus to 1.3747 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.4159 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 1.4326 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCHF 1.7751 1.7617 +134 +0.75%
GBPCAD 1.8240 1.8106 +134 +0.73%
GBPJPY 155.55 154.45 +110 +0.71%
GBPAUD 2.0045 1.9918 +127 +0.63%
EURGBP 0.8560 0.8614 -54 -0.63%

Last Updated: Aug 18, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 18, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes -- --
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jul 0.00% -0.30% 0.30%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.50% 1.80%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.50% 1.60%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jul 0.00% -0.20% 0.30%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jul -1.40% -1.70% -1.60%
09:00 EUR German ZEW Sentiment Aug 56.1 45 39.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Sentiment Aug 54.9 43 39.5
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun 10.51B 13.55B 18.89B
12:30 USD PPI M/M Jul -0.90% -0.20% 1.80%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jul -6.80% -5.80% -4.60%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jul -0.10% 0.10% 0.50%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jul 2.60% 2.80% 3.30%
12:30 USD Housing Starts Jul 581K 598K 582K 587K
12:30 USD Building Permits Jul 560K 576K 570K
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