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Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-1-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Aussie Lower after RBA, Manufacturing Data Watched

Dollar and yen trade lower as Asian stocks recovered from yesterday's selloff on solid manufacturing data from China. The official PMI manufacturing index rose for another month from 53.3 to 54 in August, hitting a 16 months high which suggests recovery is still on track and is maintaining momentum. The greenback pared the gains earlier this week and is vulnerable to new lows again major currencies. While more downside in yen crosses are still favored, momentum is seen diminishing. Volatility will likely continue to be high today with the number of key data scheduled to be released including Eurozone unemployment, UK PMI Manufacturing and US ISM Manufacturing

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Special Report

RBA Leaves Cash Rate At 3% With A Neutral Bias On Monetary Policy

The RBA announced to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3% in September. While this has been widely anticipated, the neutral tone, rather than a hawkish one, in the accompanying statement disappointed the market a bit.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0630

Although the greenback retreated after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.0637 yesterday, break of 1.0529 support is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend fall towards 1.0500 but downside should be limited to 1.0451 (50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026) and weakening of downward momentum has increased risk of a strong rebound later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6210

Despite falling to 1.6184 yesterday, the British pound held above indicated support at 1.6153 and the rebound from there suggests further consolidation would take place and as long as said support level holds, mild upside bias is seen for correction to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.6420) but break of the upper Kumo (now at 1.6450) is needed to signal low has been formed, then stronger retracement to 1.6500 would follow.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4260

The single currency is likely to stay within near term range of 1.4256-1.4407, however, as long as 1.4205 support holds, the rise from 1.4045 would resume after consolidation, above said upper range would bring a retest of recent high at 1.4448, however, break there is needed to confirm upmove has resumed for gain to 1.4474 (50% projection of 1.2885 to 1.4339 measuring from 1.3747), then 1.4500.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 94.00

Dollar's rebound after trading above yesterday's low at 92.54 on cross-selling in Japanese yen suggests further consolidation above this level would take place and correction towards 94.08 cannot be ruled out, however, the Ichimoku cloud area (94.23-94.46) would cap upside and bring another decline later. Break of said support would extend recent decline to 92.37 (61.8% projection of 97.79-93.42 measuring from 95.07), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 92.00 and chart support at 91.73 should hold.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8363; (P) 0.8411; (R1) 0.8483; More

AUD/USD recovers strongly after retreat to 0.8338 and turns intraday outlook neutral again. Another high is still possible but after all we'd expect strong resistance as AUD/USD hits 0.8519 key level and bring reversal. On the downside, below 0.8338 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside again for 0.8237 support next.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 84.43 85.69 -126 -1.49%
AUDJPY 77.73 78.68 -95 -1.22%
GBPJPY 150.47 152.24 -177 -1.18%
NZDJPY 63.30 63.97 -67 -1.06%
EURJPY 132.57 133.86 -129 -0.97%

Last Updated: Sep 01, 07:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 01, 07:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
4:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
5:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q2 -0.30% -0.90% -0.80% -0.90%
5:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q2 -2.00% -3.00% -2.40%
6:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.70% 0.70% -1.80% -1.30%
7:30 CHF SVME-PMI Aug 46.7 44.3
7:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Aug F 49 49
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Aug 30K -6K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Aug 8.40% 8.30%
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Aug F 47.9 47.9
8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Aug 51.5 50.8
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jul 9.50% 9.40%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Aug 50.1 48.9
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Aug 57 55
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jul 1.60% 3.60%
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jul -0.20% 0.30%
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