Markets Indecisive, Focus on ECB and ISM Services Dollar was dragged down by the sharp rally in Gold overnight and remains soft against major currencies. On the other hand, yen also retreats mildly following rebound in Asian stocks which saw Shanghai A shares rose an impressive 5.01%. Nevertheless, markets are still indecisive as dollar pairs are still staying in range in general and will look forward to the key events today including ECB rate decision and ISM non-manufacturing as well as tomorrow's Non-farm payroll. However, the greenback might be vulnerable for further weakness on prospect of gold's breakout from recent multi-month consolidation. Full Report Here... |
FOMC Minutes – August: In-depth Talks About Exit But No Decisions On Strategies And Timing Yet In the minutes of FOMC's meeting on August 11-12, it showed that policymakers' view on economic growth and inflation was similar to that in June although fewer downside risks were seen. Moreover, the officials discussed about tapering of agency debts and MBS purchases, as well as including ARMs in the MBS purchase program. Full Report Here... Events to Watch: ECB Meeting, UK Services PMI, US ISM Non-Manufacturing As in previous meetings, consensus forecast that the ECB will leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% in September. Focus of the meeting has been shifted to the press conference and there are 2 major aspects we will pay attention to. First, will the central bank add any spread over the policy rate for the next 1-year tender in late September? Second, has the ECB staff upgraded its GDP forecast from June? Full Report Here... |
Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Exit Long Entered At 1.0600 Dollar's retreat from 1.0708 turned out to be stronger than expected, suggesting downside risk remains and fall to 1.0540/50 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of recent low at 1.0529 would signal decline has once again resumed and extend to 1.0500 but reckon 1.0451 (50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026) would hold from here and bring another rebound later. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6370 As cross-buying in sterling has continued to support cable and price has just broke above the Ichimoku cloud bottom, suggesting retracement of recent decline is underway, however, upside should be limited to 1.6369 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6625 to 1.6113) and 1.6382-92 (previous resistance and current level of Ichimoku cloud top), bring another decline later. Break of said support would extend to 1.6080/90 but reckon chart support at 1.6033 would limit downside today. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4370 Although the single currency has continued to edge higher after rebounding from 1.4177, suggesting gain to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4310) is likely, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, euro should meet renewed selling interest below 1.4379 resistance and bring another retreat later. Below said support at 1.4177 would extend fall from 1.4407 to 1.4140/50 and possibly 1.4100 but as euro is expected to gyrate within recent established range of 1.4045-1.4448, price should stay well above indicated lower range. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 93.70 As dollar has rebounded after intra-day brief fall to 91.94 partly due to cross-trading in Japanese yen, suggesting consolidation above there would take place and break of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 92.51) would bring retracement fo the Kijun-Sen (now at 93.02), however, renewed selling should emerge well below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 93.97) and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend decline to 91.73, however, as hourly oscillators already displayed bullish convergence, downside should be limited to 91.40/50 and 90.92 (100% projection of 95.07 to 92.54 measuring from 93.45) would hold. Full Report Here... |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6156; (P) 1.6228; (R1) 1.6341; More GBP/USD rebounds strongly after hitting 1.6111 and break of 1.6265 indicates that an intraday low is in place. Also, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a short term bottom could be formed too. Some more consolidation could now be seen with stronger recovery to 1.6374 resistance and above. However, upside should be limited below 1.6622 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6190 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.6111 low first. Read more... All Technical Outlook Reports | Daily Top Movers | Top 5 | Current | Last | Change
(Pips) | Change
(%) | | NZDJPY | 62.61 | 62.00 | +61 | +0.97% | | NZDUSD | 0.6777 | 0.6724 | +53 | +0.78% | | AUDJPY | 77.35 | 76.85 | +50 | +0.65% | | CADJPY | 83.85 | 83.40 | +45 | +0.54% | | GBPJPY | 150.73 | 150.02 | +71 | +0.47% | Last Updated: Sep 03, 08:00 GMT Currency Heat Map Daily View | USD | EUR | JPY | GBP | CHF | CAD | AUD | | USD | | | | | | | | | EUR | | | | | | | | | JPY | | | | | | | | | GBP | | | | | | | | Last Updated: Sep 03, 08:00 GMT |
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