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Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-16-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Soft after Making New Low

Dollar remains pressured after making new low against Euro, Yen and Aussie today. Economic data released from US provide little support to the greenback. Dollar index continue to hover around today's low of 76.20. Stocks open high on further rebound in commodities which saw the CRB index pressing 259 level. Gold remains firm after climbing to as high as 1023.3 earlier today. The Japanese yen also strengthened broadly after Hiroshia Fuji, the next finance chief in Japan, said today that he didn't support a "weaker yen".

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Special Reports

BOE May Reduce Deposit Rate. How Does it Work and What are the Impacts?

At the Treasury Select Committee hearing on September 15, the BOE Governor Mervyn King said the MPC is considering lowering the remuneration on banks' reserve. The issue was actually not new as King mentioned about it at the August Inflation report but the BOE did not announce any action at September's meeting. The Governor brought the issue out again may suggest something will be done in coming months and this triggered selloff in sterling. Cable plunged below the 1.65 support before finding support around 1.6425 while EURGBP broke above recent trading range in 0.884 and rose to 0.89. In this article, we will talk about how a change in remuneration rate works and its impact on QE.

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FX Forecasts Update: USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF

Improved market sentiment and favors towards risky assets pressured the dollar over the past month. Although USD's decline against major currencies looked excessive, investors remained hesitant to remove the bearish view on USD. The general themes on the dollar remain to be interest rate differential, increasing appetite to higher-yield investments and reserve diversification. These topics will likely render the dollar chronically weak in the near-term.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Despite falling to 1.5111 earlier, as long as indicated support at 1.5006 holds, further consolidation would take place and mild upside bias remains for another rebound for gain to 1.5300, however, break of 1.5383 resistance is needed to signal the wave iii has commenced for retest of 1.5448 probably in Q4.

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

Despite recovering to 1.0927, as the greenback has fallen again, suggesting a retest of recent low at 1.0632 is under way, break there would extend the final leg of wave c of larger degree wave A to 1.0590 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9059-1.3066) and possibly towards 1.0531 (61.8% projection of the beginning of wave i to iii measuring from wave iv). However, as this is the final wave v of c leg as well as the entire wave B from 1.3066, downside should be limited to support at 1.0310/15.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EURGBP Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

As the single currency has continued to move higher and is approaching indicated upside target at the Kijun-Sen and Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.8914-17), a weekly close above 0.9000 would signal the correction from 0.9805 has ended at 0.8400 and gain to 0.9103 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9805 to 0.8400) would follow but reckon 0.9268 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold on first testing.

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AUDUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The Australian dollar has maintained a firm undertone after early resumption of upmove from 0.6007 and further gain to indicated upside target at 0.8708 (50% projection of 0.6248 to 0.8265 measuring from 0.7700) is under way, above there would extend towards 0.8947 (61.8% projection), however, reckon psychological resistance at 0.9000 would limit upside and risk from there has increased for a correction in early Q4.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.67; (P) 91.15; (R1) 91.53; More..

USD/JPY fell to as low as 90.12 today before recovering mildly. The break of 90.20 suggests that recent decline from 97.77 has resumed and should now target lower channel support at 89.74 next. On the upside, above 91.62 will indicate that consolidation from 90.20 is still in progress. But after all recovery should be limited by 91.94/93.29 resistance zone. However, note that decisive break of 93.29 resistance will argue that whole fall from 97.77 has completed and will turn focus back to upper channel resistance (now at 96.58).

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPAUD 1.8903 1.9091 -188 -0.99%
NZDUSD 0.7109 0.7047 +62 +0.87%
AUDUSD 0.8704 0.8633 +71 +0.82%
EURAUD 1.6840 1.6975 -135 -0.80%
GBPJPY 149.09 150.11 -102 -0.68%

Last Updated: Sep 16, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 16, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:00 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul 1.10% -- 0.70% 0.90%
07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jul 1.00% 1.00% 0.90%
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Aug 24.4K 24.7K 24.9K 25.2K
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Aug 5.00% 5.00% 4.90%
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jul 7.90% 8.00% 7.80%
09:00 CHF ZEW Expectations Sep 58 -- 18.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Aug 0.30% 0.30% -0.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug -0.20% -0.20% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.30% 1.20% 1.30%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jul 5.50% 2.40% 1.90%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Aug 0.40% 0.30% 0.00%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Aug -1.50% -1.70% -2.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.40% 1.40% 1.50%
12:30 USD Current Account Balance Q2 -98.8B -$92.0B -$101.5B
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jul 15.3B 65.3B 90.7B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Aug 0.80% 0.70% 0.50%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Aug 69.60% 69.10% 68.50%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.6M -5.9M
17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 19 18
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