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Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-2-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Firm, Yen Rallies after ADP Disappointment

Yen extends recent rally in early US session while dollar remains firm following disappointment from US ADP employment report. Stocks open lower with S&P 500 staying below 1000 level while treasury yield dips mildly. Both are supporting the Japanese yen. On the other han, general weakness in commodities are supporting the greenback. In particular, crude oil dropped through 68 level to as low as 67.21 which gives additional pressure to Canadian dollar. Also, note that VIX surged through 29 level and took out August's high of 28.39 which argues that risk aversion might be coming back.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

The single currency traded narrowly after finding support at 1.5136 earlier and further consolidation below resistance at 1.5383 would take place and whilst marginal weakness to 1.5000/10 cannot be ruled out, as long as support at 1.5006 (wave ii trough) holds, our bullish count remains for wave iii upmove in probably in Q4.

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

Although the greenback rebounded after trading above recent low at 1.0632 and test of resistance at 1.1126 cannot be ruled out, only a daily close above this level would add credence to our view that the wave v as well as c leg of wave B has ended at 1.0632 and further gain to 1.1307 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1725 to 1.0632) would follow. Above there would confirm and extend rise to 1.1490 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2716 to 1.0632) but resistance at 1.1725 (also just above 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2716 to 1.0632 at 1.1724).

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EURGBP Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The single currency finally broke above indicated key resistance at 0.8699 and follow through buying pushed price higher to 0.8839 last week, suggesting further gain to the Kijun-Sen and Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.8950 and 0.8943 respectively) is under way, however, a weekly close above there is needed to confirm the fall from 0.9805 top has ended at 0.8400 and bring stronger rebound to 0.9103 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9805 to 0.8400) but reckon 0.9268 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold.

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AUDUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Despite rising to 0.8471 last week, as the Australian dollar has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.8479 (where a 'doji' star was formed), retaining our view for further consolidation and test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.8090) is likely but a weekly close below this line is a necessary condition to signal temporary top has been formed at 0.8479, then correction towards the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.7929) would follow. However, reckon support at 0.7700 would hold from here and bring a rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0920; (P) 1.0993; (R1) 1.1115; More.

USD/CAD's rally resumes by taking out 1.1090 and at this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.1004 minor support holds. As discussed before, break of 1.1123 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 1.0631 has resumed and affirm the case that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 1.1723 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.1004 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Also, note that break of 1.0718 support will indicate that price actions from 1.0631 are merely consolidation in the larger decline, which is still in progress for another low below 1.0631 before completion.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDNZD 1.2381 1.2226 +155 +1.25%
NZDJPY 62.01 62.70 -69 -1.11%
AUDCAD 0.9201 0.9119 +82 +0.89%
CADJPY 83.45 84.14 -69 -0.83%
NZDUSD 0.6701 0.6749 -48 -0.72%

Last Updated: Sep 02, 13:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 02, 13:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.60% 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
01:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q2 0.60% 0.30% 0.40%
08:30 GBP PMI Construction Aug 47.7 48.1 47
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q2 P -4.70% -4.70% -4.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jul -0.80% -0.60% 0.30% 0.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jul -8.50% -8.40% -6.60% -6.50%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug -13.80% -- -5.70%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Aug -298K -250K -371K
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q2 F 6.60% 6.20% 6.40%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 F -5.90% -5.50% -5.80%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Jul 1.80% 0.40%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.5M 0.2M
18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes -- --
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