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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-15-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Sterling Lifted by Housing Data, UK CPI Watched

Dollar remains soft ahead of a busy day but after all, there is no decisive momentum to resume recent down trend in the greenback yet. Financial markets generally tread water with stocks, gold and oil consolidating in tight range. Most volatility is found in sterling so far as the pound is lifted by solid housing data released overnight. Aussie, on the other hand, trades with a mild undertone on less hawkish than expected RBA minutes. Nevertheless, volatility will likely build up considering the pile of important data release ahead which include UK CPI, German ZEW, US retail sales, PPI, Empire State manufacturing, as well as Bernanke's speech.

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Action Insight Daily Report

Events to Watch: US Empire State, Philly Fed, Industrial Production

Last week, the Fed Beige Book indicated economy has stabilized and improved in most of the US. While recovery has been felt in different sectors, the strongest ones was residential real estate, manufacturing and retail auto sales. Manufacturing showed 'modest improvements' in most regions while in general manufacturers were 'cautiously optimistic' about the outlook. Therefore, we expect further improvements to be seen in the manufacturing indices this week.

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Events to Watch: CPI from UK, US, CA

We will receive inflation data for August from the UK, the US and Canada later this week. Strong rise in gasoline prices is expected to have lifted headline readings from a month ago. However, on annual basis, readings probably have moderated due to strong energy and food prices during the same period in 2009.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0500, O.C.O Buy At 1.0245

Despite falling to 1.0322 this morning, the rebound from there suggests consolidation would take place and minor correction to 1.0466 is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge well below resistance at 1.0529 (previous support turned resistance) and bring another decline. Below said support would extend marginally to 1.0265/68 (1.236 times projection of 1.0885 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.0708), however, 1.0245 (50% projection of 1.0700 to 1.0339 measuring from 1.0425) would attract buying interest and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6460

Despite cable' rebound from 1.6522, as long as 1.6742 resistance (where a shooting star candlestick pattern was formed) holds, further consolidation would take place and another corrective fall to 1.6522 cannot be ruled out, break there would bring stronger retracement towards 1.6455, however, renewed buying interest should emerge well above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6434) and bring another rise later. Above said resistance would bring resumption of recent upmove for headway towards 1.6790/00 but reckon 1.6859 (1.618 times projection of 1.6113 to 1.6445 measuring from 1.6322) would hold.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4480, O.C.O. Sell At 1.4740

Despite rising to 1.4654 yesterday, lack of follow through buying suggests consolidation would take place and below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.4584) would bring minor correction to support at 1.4515, however, renewed buying interest would emerge around 1.4477 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4191 to 1.4654) and support at 1.4448 (previous resistance now support) should hold, bring another rally. Above said resistance would extend towards 1.4688 (50% projection of 1.2457-1.4339 measuring from 1.3747) is likely, however, upside should be limited to 1.4738/40 (approx. 50% projection of 1.4191 to 1.4636 measuring from 1.4515) and 1.4763 (1.618 times projection of 1.4045 to 1.4407 measuring from 1.4177) would hold, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 90.60

As the greenback has continued to edge higher, suggesting a temporary low has possibly been formed at 90.18 earlier and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for correction of recent decline towards 92.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 93.31 to 90.18), however, sharp rise beyond resistance at 92.60 (also the current level of Ichimoku cloud bottom) is unlikely and price should falter below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 93.02).

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.15; (P) 150.52; (R1) 151.16; More

GBP/JPY's recovery from 149.87 and break of 151.27 minor resistance suggests that an intraday low is in place. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment and consolidation from 149.01 might extend further. Another rise to 153.22 cannot be ruled out but upside should be limited below 157.47 resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 149.87 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 149.01 will whole decline from 163.05 has resumed for 146.75 key support next.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCHF 1.7228 1.7152 +76 +0.44%
GBPAUD 1.9309 1.9230 +79 +0.41%
GBPCAD 1.8006 1.7942 +64 +0.36%
GBPJPY 151.28 150.78 +50 +0.33%
AUDNZD 1.2253 1.2291 -38 -0.31%

Last Updated: Sep 15, 08:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 15, 08:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Aug 10.70% -0.10% -8.10% -5.70%
1:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes -- --
7:15 CHF Industrial Production Q/Q Q2 7.30% -13.10%
8:30 GBP CPI M/M Aug 0.30% 0.00%
8:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Aug 1.40% 1.80%
8:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Aug 1.60% 1.80%
8:30 GBP RPI M/M Aug 0.20% 0.00%
8:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Aug -1.50% -1.40%
8:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Jul -9.50% -10.70%
9:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Sep 60 56.1
9:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Sep 60 54.9
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Jul 5.00% -0.60%
12:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q2 -- 0.30%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Aug 1.80% -0.10%
12:30 USD Retail Sales ex-autos Aug 0.40% -0.60%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Aug 0.80% -0.90%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Aug -5.40% -6.80%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Aug 0.10% -0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Aug 2.20% 2.60%
12:30 USD Empire Manufacturing Sep 14 12.08
14:00 USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Financial Crisis in Washington -- --
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jul -0.80% -1.10%
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