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Monday, September 14, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-14-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Pressured again after Brief Recovery

Dollar's recovery against Euro and Swissy was rather brief and is back pressing recent low in early US session as Gold is back above 1000 level after dipping to 994.4 earlier today. Commodity currencies fall broadly today on the back of weakness in global stocks. Investor sentiments are somewhat hurt by speculation of escalating trade dispute between China and US. Canadian dollar is additionally pressured dipped further to as low as 68.02 level. New Zealand dollar remains soft after disappointing retail sales released overnight. On the other hand, yen crosses rebound strongly in early US session following rebound in treasury yield which saw yield on 10 year note touches 3.4 level.

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Special Reports

Events to Watch: CPI from UK, US, CA

We will receive inflation data for August from the UK, the US and Canada later this week. Strong rise in gasoline prices is expected to have lifted headline readings from a month ago. However, on annual basis, readings probably have moderated due to strong energy and food prices during the same period in 2009.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

The single currency broke above recent high at 1.4448 and jumped to 1.4636 last week, reinforcing our view that a diagonal triangle wave v is unfolding and already reached our indicated upside target at 1.4605 (50% projection of wave i-iii measuring from end of wave iv at 1.3878) and gain towards 1.4720 chart resistance, however, upside should be limited to 1.4777 (61.8% projection) and bring retreat later.

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USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

The greenback finally broke below support at 91.73, indicating the wave B from 101.45 is still unfolding and we have re-labeled the break-down of this move as follow: first a-b-c ended at 93.85, followed by wave x at 98.90, then another set of a-b-c is unfolding with second a ended at 91.73, second b at 97.79 and second c leg is still in progress which may extend to 90.00, however, downside should be limited to 88.07 (100% projection of 101.45 to 91.73 measuring from 97.79). In any case, as long as support at 87.10 holds, prospect of another rise in C leg of wave 2 remains.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EURUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

After trading in a narrow range for the past month, the single currency finally broke above recent high at 1.4448 confirms our view that the rise from 1.2457 has resumed and gain to 1.4688 (50% projection of 1.2457 to 1.4339 measuring from 1.3747) would follow. However, it is necessary to see a rise above chart resistance at 1.4720 would signal an upside break of 1,2329-1.4720 range has taken place and extend headway towards 1.4910 (61.8% projection) , otherwise, further choppy consolidation within abovementioned range cannot be ruled out.

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USDJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Last week's anticipated breach of previous support at 91.73 confirms the decline from 101.45 is still in progress and with both Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen started turning south, a weekly close below 90.00 would extend weakness towards 88.07 (100% projection of 101.45 to 91.73 measuring from 97.79), then retest of recent low at 87.10. Having said that, it is necessary to see a break of this level to confirm the medium term downtrend has resumed for eventual fall towards 85.00.Tenkan

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4537; (P) 1.4586; (R1) 1.4618; More

Consolidation in EUR/USD is possibly still in progress and intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.4633 will target key resistance level at 1.4687. However, we'd continue to expect strong resistance as EUR/USD approaches this level and bring reversal finally. On the downside, below 1.4515 will bring another fall. ALso, note that break of 1.4177 support will be an important signal that EUR/USD has topped out after meeting 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.2329 at 1.4622.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 78.27 79.23 -96 -1.23%
EURJPY 132.20 133.74 -154 -1.16%
CADJPY 84.16 85.14 -98 -1.16%
USDJPY 90.67 91.72 -105 -1.16%
CHFJPY 87.33 88.31 -98 -1.12%

Last Updated: Sep 11, 14:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 11, 14:15 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.50% 0.60% 0.10% -0.10%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Jul -0.50% 0.50% -0.40% -0.60%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul F 2.10% 1.90% 1.90%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul F -22.70% -22.90% -22.90%
07:15 CHF Combined PPI M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
07:15 CHF Combined PPI Y/Y Aug -5.50% -5.40% -6.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q2 -0.50% -- -0.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jul -0.30% -0.30% -0.60% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Jul -15.90% -16.70% -17.00% -16.70%
12:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q2 67.40% 65.50% 69.30% 70.20%
12:35 USD Fed's Duke Speaks to CPA Conference in Washington -- --
16:30 USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Regulation in Charlotte -- --
19:50 USD Fed's Yellen Speaks on Economic Outlook -- --
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