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Thursday, September 17, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-17-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

SNB Reiterated Statnce to Prevent Franc Appreciation

Swiss Franc spikes lower after SNB left rates unchanged and pledged it will continue to counter appreciation of the franc. The three-month Libor was left unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. SNB noted in the accompanying statement that there are still "considerable" uncertainty as to future developments and hence SNB opted for "caution" to leave rates unchanged. Regarding currency policy, the bank reiterated that it will "continue to act decisively to prevent any appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro.” After all, the Swissy settled back into familiar range after initial knee-jerk reactions.

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Special Reports

BOE May Reduce Deposit Rate. How Does it Work and What are the Impacts?

At the Treasury Select Committee hearing on September 15, the BOE Governor Mervyn King said the MPC is considering lowering the remuneration on banks' reserve. The issue was actually not new as King mentioned about it at the August Inflation report but the BOE did not announce any action at September's meeting. The Governor brought the issue out again may suggest something will be done in coming months and this triggered selloff in sterling. Cable plunged below the 1.65 support before finding support around 1.6425 while EURGBP broke above recent trading range in 0.884 and rose to 0.89. In this article, we will talk about how a change in remuneration rate works and its impact on QE.

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FX Forecasts Update: USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF

Improved market sentiment and favors towards risky assets pressured the dollar over the past month. Although USD's decline against major currencies looked excessive, investors remained hesitant to remove the bearish view on USD. The general themes on the dollar remain to be interest rate differential, increasing appetite to higher-yield investments and reserve diversification. These topics will likely render the dollar chronically weak in the near-term.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

As the Australian dollar has rebounded after finding support at 77.35, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, as long as resistance at 82.00 holds, we are keeping our view that top has possibly been formed at 82.00 and mild downside bias is seen for fall towards 77.35, then 75.00/05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 70.76 to 82.00). Looking ahead, a daily close below there is needed to add credence to this view and bring correction towards 71.90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 55.56 to 82.00) later.

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

As aussie has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting medium term upmove from 0.6007 low is still in progress and our indicated upside target at 0.8690 (50% projection of wave (i) - (iii) measuring from wave (iv) trough) has been formed, however, as this is viewed as the last leg of larger degree wave C as well as wave (B), upside should be limited to 0.8923 (61.8% projection of wave (i) to (iii) measuring from wave (iv) at 0.7700) and the entire wave C and wave (B) should be capped below 0.9000, bring selloff later in wave (C).

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EUR/CHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Despite retreating to 1.5111 earlier this week, as price is expected to stay within near term range of 1.5006-1.5448, downside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5087) and as long as indicated key support at 1.5000/06 holds, further consolidation would take place and another rebound to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.5238) is likely. A weekly close above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5338) would bring test of 1.5383 resistance. Looking ahead, only a weekly close above 1.5383 resistance would confirm an upside break of indicated range has taken place and bring further rise to 1.5448, then 1.5600.

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USDCAD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The greenback fell again after meeting renewed selling right at the Tenkan-Sen, suggesting the decline from 1.3066 top has resumed and further weakness to 1.0584-90 (50% projection of 1.3066 to 1.0784 measuring from 1.1725 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9059 – 1.3066), then towards 1.0315 (61.8% projection) is likely, however, break of support at 1.0298 is needed to retain bearishness, otherwise, risk has increased for a rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0306; (P) 1.0362; (R1) 1.0401; More

USD/CHF recovers again after 1.0284 but yet, as long as 1.0489 resistance holds, further decline is still in favor. Further fall could still be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.1740 to 1.0590 from 1.0883 at 1.0172. However, break of 1.0489 will be an important signal that USD/CHF has bottomed out and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1.0714 resistance next.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDUSD 0.7091 0.7137 -46 -0.65%
USDJPY 91.33 90.92 +41 +0.45%
AUDUSD 0.8700 0.8733 -33 -0.38%
GBPJPY 150.49 149.92 +57 +0.38%
CADJPY 85.58 85.26 +32 +0.37%

Last Updated: Sep 17, 13:25 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 17, 13:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Manufacturing index Q/Q Q3 15.5 -11.4 -13.2
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jul 0.60% 0.60% 0.10% 0.20%
03:30 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Aug 2.10% 2.70% 3.30% 2.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 6.8B 1.2B 1.0B
10:00 GBP U.K. CBI Industrial Orders Sep -48 -49 -54
11:00 CAD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.20% -0.30%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Aug -0.80% -0.70% -0.90%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.60% 1.60% 1.80%
12:00 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Aug 1.10% 0.50% 0.40% 0.60%
12:30 USD Housing Starts Aug 598K 595K 581K 589K
12:30 USD Building Permits Aug 579K 580K 560K 564K
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 12) 545K 558K 550K
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. Survey Sep 7.8 4.2
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 74B 69B
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