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Friday, September 4, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-4-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Mixed Reactions to Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment at 26 Year High

Non-farm payroll report showed -216k contraction in the US job markets in August, better than expectation of -225k. However, considering downward revision in July's number from -247k to 276k, the total of payroll contraction in the past two months was -492k, which was worse than the total of August's expectation of -225k plus initial estimate of -247k in July at -472k. Also, unemployment rate rose more than expected to 26 year high of 9.7% versus consensus of 9.5%. Dollar remains in range against European majors after the release but weakens sharply against commodity currencies. Yen crosses dip mildly but rebound strongly following rebound in treasury yield. Nevertheless, there isn't follow through momentum that pushes markets through near term levels yet.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

The single currency did drop below indicated support at 132.17 as suggested in our previous update, suggesting the wave ii from 138.72 is still unfolding and indicated downside target at 131.48 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave i from 127.00 to 138.72) has been met. Although marginal weakness below 131.01 support is likely, 129.89 (1.618 times projection of 136.09 to 132.92 measuring from 135.02) should limit downside and a strong rebound later this month.

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

As the greenback has traded narrowly this week after falling to a fresh 2009 low of 1.0529 last week, suggesting further consolidation would take place and as indicated in our previous update, the pattern of the move from 1.0935 is a possible diagonal triangle wave v and marginal fall to 1.0451 (50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026) cannot be ruled out, however, as long as 1.0370 support holds, we are still holding our view of a triangle wave b count.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

NZDUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Despite rising to a fresh 2009 high of 0.6898 last week, lack of follow through buying left a 'doji' star there on the weekly chart and this week's price action becomes critical and if kiwi closes this week near the low, forms a black candlestick, this would suggest a possible top formation, then test of the Ichimoku cloud top and Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.6554 and 0.6546 respectively), however, a weekly close below there is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed and correction to 0.6359 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.5487 to 0.6898) but support at 0.6196 should hold.

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EURJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The single currency continued to move lower last week and the break of indicated 132.17 support signals further consolidation below 139.26 would take place and marginal break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 130.68) is likely, however, downside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 127.48) and support at 127.00 should hold and bring further choppy trading within 127.00-139.26 range for rest of this month.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0568; (P) 1.0601; (R1) 1.0658; More

USD/CHF recovers mildly in early US session but after all it's still bounded in range of 1.0530. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.0714 resistance holds, the pair is still vulnerable to another fall. Below 1.0530 will target lower trendline support at 1.0408. Nevertheless, strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.0714 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.0883 has completed already and will flip bias back to the upside. In such case, further rise should be seen to upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0845).

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDUSD 0.6834 0.6772 +62 +0.91%
USDCAD 1.0932 1.1018 -86 -0.79%
NZDJPY 63.16 62.73 +43 +0.68%
EURCAD 1.5605 1.5700 -95 -0.61%
CADJPY 84.49 84.04 +45 +0.53%

Last Updated: Sep 04, 12:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 04, 12:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q2 -21.70% -22.90% -25.30%
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Aug 0.10% 0.20% -0.70%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Aug -0.80% -0.70% -1.20%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug 27.1K -20.0K -44.5K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 8.70% 8.80% 8.60%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Payrolls Aug -216K -225K -247K -276K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Aug 9.70% 9.50% 9.40%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Aug 54 51.8
G20 Meeting in London -- --
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