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Daily Report: Dollar Extends Rally on European Contagion ConcernsDollar extends this week's strong rally as markets' focus is back on contagion risks of European debt crisis. Italian Prime Minister designate Monti, will unveil his cabinet today but markets seem to be quite unconvinced of his appointment so far. There are still concerns on how Monti could overcome the debt and fiscal problems. Italian 10-year yield broke above the unsustainable 7% yesterday while 5-year CDS made new high above 600bps. The worry on contagion also pushed German bund spread with Spain, Belgium, Austria and even France to new euro era records. Main focus will now turn to Spain and France bond auctions. Spain is scheduled to auction EUR 4b of 2022 bonds today while France will sell notes maturing 2013 to 2016 tomorrow. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 103.63; (P) 104.60; (R1) 105.22; More EUR/JPY drops further to as low as 130.40 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for a test on 100.74 support first. Break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 123.31 and should target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 97.62 next On the upside, break of 106.45 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish even in case of recovery. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency dropped again and finally triggered stops below 1.3470-80 partly due to the rumors of downgrading of French and Austrian ratings as well as persistent rise in bond yields of the European countries (Austrian and Dutch bond yields also went higher), barriers at 1.3425 and 1.3400 are now in focus and stops are expected below these levels but decent demand is also tipped ahead of 1.3400. On the upside, offers from real money accounts and sovereign names are lined up from 1.3480 up to 1.3500 and further out at 1.3550 with stops building up above 1.3555 and 1.3575. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3540The single currency finally penetrated support at 1.3484 and has remained under pressure, suggesting recent decline from 1.4248 is still in progress and further weakness to 1.3400 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon previous support at 1.3360 would hold on first testing, then risk from there would be for a stronger rebound later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55As the greenback has retreated again after intra-day brief bounce to 77.15, retaining our view that the rebound from 76.81 (this week’s low) has possibly ended at 77.51 and near term downside risk remains for another test of said support level at 76.81. A break there would extend recent fall from 79.55 top towards 76.55 but loss of momentum should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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