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Daily Report: IMF Rumor and Black Friday Sales Lifted Sentiments MildlySentiments recovered as the week started on the back of record Black Friday sales in US and IMF's Italian bailout rumor. According to the data from US National Retail Federation released Sunday, retail sales over the four-day weekend following Thanksgiving jumped 16% to $54.2b, affirming the view that US's recovery is still having some momentum. It's reported that the IMF was preparing a bailout package for Italy after the country's benchmark 10 year yield continued to stay above the unsustainable 7% level. The package would amount to up to EUR 600b and there were discussions on what form of support could be offered. However, the rumor was later dismissed by IMF as it denied of any discussions on bailout program for Italy. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 102.48; (P) 102.86; (R1) 103.24; More Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be see above 102.48 temporary low. But still, near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 104.35 minor resistance holds, Below 102.48 will extend the fall from 111.57 to retest 100.74 support. Break will target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 97.62. Nonetheless, break of 104.35 will dampen this bearish view and would flip bias back to the upside to extend the consolidation/correction from 100.74. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency opened higher and rebounded initially this morning from last week's low of 1.3213 on report that the IMF is preparing a 600 bln euro loan, the pair then ran into offers from various parties around 1.3340-45 and retreated on subsequent denial. At the moment, demand from Asian and European names (in part due to risk appetite on rising S&P futures) are noted from 1.3270 down to 1.3250 and mixture of bids and stops is seen at 1.3210-20 with more stops reported below 1.3200 option barrier. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3340-45 and also 1.3355-60 with some stops placed above latter level but sizeable sell orders are expected to emerge around 1.3400-10 with more stops reported above 1.3415-25. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5450As Friday’s low at 1.5423 has continued to hold and this morning’s rebound suggests a minor low is possibly formed there, hence consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5554) but break of indicated resistance at 1.5566 is needed to add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent decline towards 1.5600-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5888 to 1.5423) Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.05Despite Friday’s surge to 77.80, this morning’s retreat suggests consolidation below this level would take place and below intra-day support at 77.46 would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 77.25-29), however, renewed buying interest should emerge above previous support at 77.01 and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend the move from 76.58 to 78.00Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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