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Daily Report: Euro Steady After EFSF Regling Outlined Plan, Italy Vote AheadMarkets are pretty steady this week so far except with notably weakness in Swiss Franc. EFSF head Regling outlined the plan to bolster the EFSF fund yesterday. There are two options under discussion. The first option involve a bond insurance certificates but there is dividing opinion on whether the certificate would be traded separately. The second option uses EFSF as seed money to create one or more co-investment funds. Both options aim at fire powering the EFSF fund from EUR 440 to as much as EUR 1T. EU finance ministers are targeting to complete legal and operational work by the end of this month and implementation is set for December. The EFSF 10 year bond attracted just over EUR 3b in orders yesterday. Demand was much weaker than the January sales, with EUR 44.5b orders for EUR 5b of five year bonds. The funding cost was also higher with the new bond pried at 1.04% above the benchmark midswaps, comparing to 0.17% in June sales. Japan said it bought EUR 300m of EFSF, or 10%. It's lower than the over 20% purchase of January's five year bond and June's 10 year bonds. China declined to comment on its purchase. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.48; (R1) 108.13; More EUR/JPY is still staying in tight range above 106.49 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 106.49 will extend the fall from 111.57. Further break of 104.75 will indicate that rebound from 100.74 is finished and the larger down trend is likely resuming for another low below 100.74. On the upside, above 109.24 will flip bias back to the upside for 111.93 cluster resistance to extend the corrective rebound from 100.74. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency went through choppy sessions yesterday, slipping initially to 1.3682 on soft retail sales data before finding good buying interest there and rebounded back above 1.3800. The pair then retreated again in late New York on selling by European and Asian names (also in EUR/JPY), stops below 1.3710-20 are within range and more stops are tipped at 1.3680 with mixtures of bids and stops remain at 1.3650-60 and further out at 1.3600-10. On the upside, Worries over France may lose its AAA rating may put pressure on euro and offers are reported at 1.3780-90 and 1.3815-20 with some stops placed above 1.3835-40 but sizeable stops only emerging above 1.3870 and 1.3900. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8920As the greenback has continued to edge higher after yesterday’s rally, suggesting recent upmove from 0.8568 low is still in progress and further gain to 0.9060 and possibly test of previous resistance at 0.9082 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon previous resistance at 0.9122 would hold from here, bring retreat later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.60Dollar’s retreat after faltering below Friday’s high of 78.27 has retained our view that near term downside risk remains for weakness to support at 77.89, however, as outlook remains consolidative, downside should be limited to 77.55/60 and bring another rebound later for test of minor resistance at 78.42. Looking ahead, a break there is needed to suggest the retreat from 79.10 has possibly ended and bring a stronger rebound to 78.75/80 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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