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Daily Report: Dollar Higher on Risk Aversion, ECB and G20 FeaturedDollar regains some strength today as Asian equities are broadly lower with their focus returning to the Greece situation. It's now clear that all European leaders are seeing Greece's referendum as a vote on staying or leaving Euro. The referendum will likely take place on December 4 or 5 and Greece will not recent a "single cent" of bailout fund before the having the result. It's previous Athens will run out of money by mid-November. But Greek PM Papandreou clarified that Greece is able to stay afloat after the the referendum. And as Papandreous said, "it's quite a few days before the 6th tranche is needed to pay up salaries and pensions and so on". Facing the possibility of Greece's leaving Eurozone, default, and contagion to other countries, German Merkel pledged to have "clarity more quickly" to safeguard the euro regardless of the outcome of the referendum. Merkel and Sarkozy will meet with EU's Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn today on the plan to boost the firepower of the EFSF to EUR 1T. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0092; (P) 1.0157; (R1) 1.0208; More. Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains cautiously on the upside with 1.0086 minor support intact. As noted before, fall from 1.0656 is possibly finished at 0.9891 already, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.0656 at 0.9884. The choppy structure of such decline argues that rebound from 0.9406 might not be over. Further rise could now be seen to retest 1.0656 resistance first. Though, below 1.0086 minor support will flip bias back to the downside with focus back to 0.9891 support. Break there will confirm resumption of decline from 1.0656 and should send USD/CAD through 0.9725 support. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Fed Lowers Growth Forecasts, Considers MBS PurchasesAs expected the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and made no change in the stimulus. While providing a more positive tone on economic growth and household spending, the latest staff projections on economic growth were downwardly revised from those estimated in June. Policymakers reiterated commitments to improve communication and Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared to favor more on tying the level of the Fed funds rate to unemployment and inflation levels thresholds or disclosing FOMC members' interest rate forecasts. Concerning additional stimulus, Bernanke considered large-scale purchases of agency MBS as a 'viable option'. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite rising to 1.3829 yesterday, the single currency ran into heavy offers from U.S. and European names there and retreated partly due to the news that France and Germany said Greece will not receive any more bailout funds until the country is able to end current uncertainty (referendum on 4-5 Dec) and also meet its commitments. Bids at 1.3750 and 1.3710/15 were cleared and stops below 1.3700-10 were also tripped, however, euro still found option-related buying interest just above 1.3650 and has recovered from 1.3665 this morning. At the moment, buy orders from Middle East names are still noted at 1.3660-70 with stops building up below 1.3650 and 1.3620 whilst on the upside, offers from funds are noted at 1.3705-10, 1.3730 (U.S. names) and further out at 1.3755/60 with some stops placed above latter level but sizeable stops only emerging above 1.3830/35. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Target met and sell again at 1.5970Despite yesterday’s rebound to 1.6048, the British pound faltered below the Ichimoku cloud and has fallen in line with our expectation, our short position entered at 1.6030 met indicated target at 1.5920 (with 110 points profit) and as price has remained under pressure after breaking previous support at 1.5889, suggesting the decline from 1.6167 top is still in progress for retracement of early upmove to 1.5848-53 (previous resistance) Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Target met and stand asideAlthough the single currency rebounded to as high as 1.3829, as euro retreated after holding below indicated resistance at 1.3830, retaining our bearishness and price reached indicated downside target at 1.3670 as the currency pair slipped to 1.3665 this morning (with 125 points profit). This anticipated decline adds credence to our view that correction from this week’s low at 1.3608 has ended at 1.3829 and consolidation with downside bias remains Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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