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Mid-Day Report: Dollar and Yen Soar as Italian Yield Breaks Unsustainable 7% LevelDollar and yen jump across the board today as surging Italian yield sinks stocks and market sentiments. Italian yield rose to as high as 7.4% today, another euro era high. More importantly, 7% is level where markets consider unsustainable for funding Italy's debts. It should be noted that Greece, Ireland and Portugal eventually sought bailout from EU/IMF after respective 10 year yield broke the 7% level. The selloff in Italian bonds was triggered by LCH Clearnet SA's announcement to raise deposit depends for trading Italian securities. In short, the announcement made it much more expensive to fund a position in Italian bonds with higher clearing margins. And that reflects the perception of deterioration in Italy's credit quality in the markets. And after all, it makes a bad situation worse. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6038; (P) 1.6084; (R1) 1.6133; More. GBP/USD's sharp fall today indicates that recovery from 1.5876 has finished at 1.6129. Fall from there should be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6165 and should now target 1.5876 and below. But after all, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained by 1.5631/5851 support zone to complete the consolidation and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6129 should extend the rally from 1.5271 towards 1.6618 resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 1.5631 will indicate that rebound from 1.5271 has finished and should bring retest of this low. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite rising briefly to 1.3859 earlier in Asia, the single currency ran into heavy offers there and tumbled throughout the European session as Italian 10 year bond yields surged to fresh high, report from Fitch regarding eurozone facing tripled risk of a double dip recession since Q2 also put heavy pressure on euro. Stops below 1.3720, 1.3680 and 1.3650 were all tripped and more stops are reported below 1.3600 (with some bids from Middle East names ahead of this level), once these stops are triggered, the pair may drop further to 1.3550 and 1.3525 where option barriers are located. On the upside, offers from various parties (including UK clearer) are reported from 1.3650 up to 1.3680 and more selling interest should emerge around 1.3720-30 with stops only emerging above 1.3750 and 1.3780. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6075As cable’s intra-day decline has gathered momentum and price broke below indicated support at 1.5980, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.6130 yesterday and bearishness remains for test of previous support at 1.5947, however, break there is needed to signal the rebound form 1.5876 has ended at 1.6130 and extend weakness towards 1.5900/10 later. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3725Current breach of indicated support at 1.3682 and 1.3656 signals the correction from last week’s low of 1.3608 has ended at 1.3870 and bearishness is seen for retest of this level, break there would confirm the decline from 1.4248 top has resumed and extend further weakness towards 1.3565-66 (previous support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3145-1.4248) later, however, oversold condition should limit downside to 1.3500. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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