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Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Improved on Reduced Chance of Greek Referendum, ECB Surprised Rate CutEuro and dollar are both under some pressure in early US session. On the one hand, ECB's 25bps rate cut is a surprise to the markets. On the other hand, risk appetite improves mildly as political division in Greece reduces the chance of referendum. Aussie and Canadian dollar both show sign that recent pull back is over. Sterling is notably stronger. Meanwhile, Dollar, Euro and Yen are stuck in tight range. In any case, uncertainty over the Eurozone and Greece situation will remain and price actions in EUR/USD would remain choppy and directionless, which should be avoided. Focus will be on whether commodity currencies could sustain gain along with rebound in equities. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0275; (P) 1.0351; (R1) 1.0422; More AUD/USD's strong rebound and break of 1.0427 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.0752 is possibly finished at 1.0202 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for retesting 1.0752 first. on the downside, below 1.0202 will indicate that fall from 1.0752 is still in progress for parity. But we'd anticipate strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.9387 to 1.0752 at 0.9908 to contain downside to finish the pull back. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Fed Lowers Growth Forecasts, Considers MBS PurchasesAs expected the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and made no change in the stimulus. While providing a more positive tone on economic growth and household spending, the latest staff projections on economic growth were downwardly revised from those estimated in June. Policymakers reiterated commitments to improve communication and Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared to favor more on tying the level of the Fed funds rate to unemployment and inflation levels thresholds or disclosing FOMC members' interest rate forecasts. Concerning additional stimulus, Bernanke considered large-scale purchases of agency MBS as a 'viable option'. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rebounded quickly strongly in early European session on rumors of Greek PM Papandreou may withdraw his referendum proposal (there were even rumors of his resignation), ECB's shocking move of cutting rates by 25 b.p. from 1.50% to 1.25% dragged euro lower from intra-day high of 1.3835. Having said that, bids quickly emerged around 1.3720/25 and limited euro's downside so far, more buying interest is tipped at 1.3700 and 1.3660-70 with stops building up below 1.3650 and 1.3630. On the upside, sizeable offers are still noted from 1.3830 up to 1.3850 and if these tough obstacles are cleared, the single currency may stage a strong rebound to 1.3900 where next layer of offers is located. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8770Although dollar has recovered after intra-day fall to 0.8786, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.8864) would limit upside and near term risk remains for the corrective fall from 0.8961 to extend marginal weakness to 0.8765-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8568 to 0.8961), however, as this move is viewed as retracement of recent upmove from 0.8568, previous resistance at 0.8740 should hold and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0500Although the Australian dollar has fallen again after brief recovery to 1.0429 yesterday, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.0200 and reckon 1.0140/50 would hold and risk has increased for a rebound back to said resistance, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0490-00 and bring another decline later. Below 1.0140/50 would indicate the rebound from 0.9388 has possibly ended Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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