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Daily Report: USD/JPY Bounces from Fresh Record Low on Intervention FearsAfter hitting a fresh record low of 75.94 last Friday, the greenback finally rebounded this morning to a 1 ½ week high of 77.23 on active buying by an U.S. name (on behalf of a Japanese institutional investor), However, the currency pair ran into heavy offers by exporters and has retreated back around 76.70/75 due to lack of real action from Japanese officials. Although Ministry of Finance and even Japan's Prime Minister both came out and warned about the one-sided move in Japanese yen, as comments were pretty much the same as before, i.e. excessive Yen rise has a negative impact on the economy and the government is ready to take decisive action against any speculative and excessive moves if necessary, not much effect on the FX market, Finance Minister Noda added that it is too early to reach a conclusion on the BOJ/MOF intervention earlier this month (4 Aug), however, traders need something more solid in order to stop them from buying the Japanese yen. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 75.99; (P) 76.48; (R1) 77.02; More. The strong recovery today and break of 76.96 minor resistance indicates that a temporary low is formed at 75.94 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations would be seen above 75.94 first and stronger recovery might be seen. But after all, we'll stay bearish as long as 80.23 and expect more downside ahead. Break of 75.94 will target 100% projection of 81.46 to 76.28 from 80.23 at 75.05 next. |
| Special Reports |
Evaluation Of QE2 And Preview Of Possible QE3 Ahead Of Jackson Hole SymposiumThe next major event in the US after the August FOMC meeting will be next Friday's economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. After the Fed announced to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2013 on August 9, the market has been increasingly speculating that Chairman Ben Bernanke will signal additional easing measures at the meeting next week. According to a CNBC survey done after the FOMC meeting, 46% of respondents said the Fed will resume QE, up from 19% in the July survey while 37% said the Fed will not do QE, down from 68% in July. Also, of those who believe the Fed will resume QE, the asset purchases are expected to average at 628B, up from 377B in July. |
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| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4290Despite Friday’s rebound from 1.4259 to 1.4453, lack of follow through buying on the break of previous resistance at 1.4452 and the subsequent retreat from 1.4453 suggest further consolidation below last week’s high of 1.4517 would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.4290/00 and said support at 1.4259 should hold, bring another rebound later. A breach of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4394) would signal the retreat from 1.4453 has ended Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.45Although the greenback finally resumed major downtrend to a fresh record low of 75.94 last Friday, the subsequent rally to 77.23 (same level as previous resistance) suggests a minor low has been formed, hence downside should be limited to 76.20/25 and bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance would add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent decline to another previous resistance at 77.86 which is likely to hold on first testing. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||
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