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Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Building up Momentum in Otherwise Quiet MarketsThe forex markets are basically confined in tight range as economic data released today provide little inspiration. US ADP employment report showed 91k expansion in the private job market in August, below expectation of 103k while prior month's figure was revised down to 109k. That's not bad number and is inline with expectation of 90k growth in Non-Farm payroll. But the ADP has been a poor leading indicator to NFP in recent months and hence, the figure was largely ignored by the markets. Challenger reported showed planned layoff rose 47% yoy in August. Canadian GDP rose 0.2% mom in June, somewhat much better than prior month's -0.3% contraction. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8136; (P) 0.8184; (R1) 0.8248; More... A temporary top is formed at 0.8246 and retreat from there extends further to as low as 0.7992 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Note that USD/CHF has just faced strong resistance from medium term falling trend line and bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 0.7769 support will suggest that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and will target a retest on this low. On the upside, though, above 0.8246 will bring another rise. Sustained break of 0.8275 resistance will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.8847. |
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Central Bank Forecasts: BOJ's Stance To Remain Accommodative After The New PMWe don't expect the monetary policy in Japan will change after the new Prime Minister on board. With economic growth remaining sluggish and deflation still a threat, the BOJ will leave the policy rate at virtually 0% at least until 2012. The central bank will also maintain the asset-purchase program and may expand the scope of assets if necessary. With regard to yen's strength, we believe the government has not given up intervention though the impacts so far have not been significant. A Few Doves Favored More Easing Than Just A Guideline On Fed Funds RateThe minutes of the August FOMC meeting unveiled that a few members believed the Fed should have done more at the meeting, given the economic developments. The range of tools that policymakers discussed to stimulate the economy included reinforcing forward guidance about the likely path of monetary policy, additional asset purchases, increasing the average maturity of securities holdings, reducing the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances. However, the preference of the above tools was not shown. Information received during the intermeeting period had led the staff to revise down the projection for real GDP growth in the second half of 2011 and in 2012 'notably'. Concerning inflation, policymakers believed headline inflation has 'moderated' as 'prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks'. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.6270Despite intra-day retreat from 1.6330, as cable has rebounded after holding above indicated support at 1.6255, retaining our near term bullishness for test of said resistance at 1.6330, however, a sustained breach of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.6332) is needed to signal retreat from 1.6455 has ended and bring a stronger rebound towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6372), then towards 1.6400. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 110.20Euro’s retreat after this week’s initially brief rise to 111.93 suggests a temporary top is formed there and retracement towards support at 110.11 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 108.01 (tentatively low of 2nd c leg of B) to 112.00 and possibly towards resistance at 112.36/40. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: The greenback tumbled against the Swiss franc on disappointment on a CHF870 million aid package announced by Swiss government, bids at 0.8120 and 0.8100 were cleared and stops below 0.8050 and 0.8000 (EUR/CHF – 1.0600 and 1.0550) were also triggered. At the moment, more stops are reported at 0.7980, offers from U.S. investment house and Swiss names are lined up from 0.8100 up to 0.8120, more selling interest is likely to emerge around 0.8150-60 with stops building up above 0.8200 and 0.8250. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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