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Mid-Day Report: Euro off from PMI Inspired High as PBOC Adviser Suggest Not to Buy Euro DebtsAs August purchasing manager index of Germany and eurozone came in better-than-expected, the single currency jumped shortly after the release and as indicated in our previous update that some traders pre-positioned for a weak data, they were forced to cover their short position which also helped pushing euro higher. The first set of PMI data from French was mixed with manufacturing PMI weaker than expected (49.3 vs 49.7) whilst services PMI exceeded analysts' forecast (56.1 vs 53.5). The real trigger kicked in when the German manufacturing PMI showed a better reading at 52.0 against consensus of 52.0, followed by eurozone services and manufacturing PMI both came in higher than anticipated at 49.7 and 51.5 against forecast of 49.5 and 50.9 respectively. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 76.50; (P) 76.85; (R1) 77.15; More. USD/JPY's recovery stalled at 77.19 and weakened mildly. But still, it's staying in tight range above 75.94 and thus, intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidations. Above 77.19 will bring another recovery but we'll stay bearish as long as 80.23 and expect more downside ahead. Break of 75.94 will confirm decline resumption and should target 100% projection of 81.46 to 76.28 from 80.23 at 75.05 next. |
| Special Reports |
Evaluation Of QE2 And Preview Of Possible QE3 Ahead Of Jackson Hole SymposiumThe next major event in the US after the August FOMC meeting will be next Friday's economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. After the Fed announced to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2013 on August 9, the market has been increasingly speculating that Chairman Ben Bernanke will signal additional easing measures at the meeting next week. According to a CNBC survey done after the FOMC meeting, 46% of respondents said the Fed will resume QE, up from 19% in the July survey while 37% said the Fed will not do QE, down from 68% in July. Also, of those who believe the Fed will resume QE, the asset purchases are expected to average at 628B, up from 377B in July. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.25Dollar’s retreat after intra-day initial brief bounce to 75.94 suggests near term downside risk remains for retracement of the rise from 76.94 to 76.43 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 75.94 to 77.23), however, reckon previous support at 76.25 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. A sustained break of said resistance at 76.94 would suggest retreat from 77.23 has ended and bring retest of this level Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.7800Despite intra-day retreat to 0.7853, as the greenback has rebounded again, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and as long as indicated retracement level at 0.7939 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8020-0.7807) holds, near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness below support at 0.7807. Having said that, downside should be limited to 0.7784 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7548-0.8020) and support at 0.7770 should hold, bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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