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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Risk Recovery Finished, Revisiting Recent Lows ahead of Jackson Hole?The recovery in market sentiments was rather short-lived as risk selloffs resumed towards the end of the last week. Disappointment from the Franco-German summit turned market around and there was renewed worry on interbank liquidity stress. Global economic data continued to disappoint and point to further slowdown while investment banks such as Citigroup and JP Morgan downgraded their forecasts on US growth while Morgan Stanley trimmed its global growth outlook, warning the US and Europe are 'dangerously close to recession'. Major equity indices stumbled on Thursday and Friday while gold made another record high at 1881.4 and is marching towards 1900. The currency markets, though, were relatively calm. Commodity currencies were generally low but loss was so far limited. Swiss Franc is relatively indifferent to risk aversion on concern of intervention from SNB. Yen was higher but momentum as unconvincing. Surprisingly, Sterling was the strongest currency last week on safe haven flows. At this point, it looks like there will be another around of risk selloffs to push equities to new yearly low ahead of the highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium. |    |
| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Weekly OutlookDespite dipping to as low as 0.8653 last week, EUR/GBP held above 0.8642 support and recovered strongly before closing. The development suggests that recent sideway trading is not finished yet and we'll continue to stay neutral. on the upside, above 0.8886 will re-affirm the case that fall from 0.9083 has completed at 0.8642 and should bring stronger rise to retest 0.9083. On the downside, however, break of 0.8610/42 support zone will has medium term bearish implication and should bring deeper fall to 0.8284/8355 support zone first. |
| Special Report |
Evaluation Of QE2 And Preview Of Possible QE3 Ahead Of Jackson Hole SymposiumThe next major event in the US after the August FOMC meeting will be next Friday's economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. After the Fed announced to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2013 on August 9, the market has been increasingly speculating that Chairman Ben Bernanke will signal additional easing measures at the meeting next week. According to a CNBC survey done after the FOMC meeting, 46% of respondents said the Fed will resume QE, up from 19% in the July survey while 37% said the Fed will not do QE, down from 68% in July. Also, of those who believe the Fed will resume QE, the asset purchases are expected to average at 628B, up from 377B in July. |
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The Week in Review and Preview |
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