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Mid-Day Report: Siwss Franc Surges to Another Record high on Safe-Haven FlowsWith euro and sterling remained confined within established ranges, Swiss franc once again took the center stage and surged to another record highs against the greenback and euro at 0.7360 and 1.0475 respectively on continued safe-haven demand due to global financial markets turmoil. The Swiss franc gained approximately 14 percent over the past month, not only versus dollar and euro but also aussie and kiwi which rallied especially in the past 2 weeks. The two commodity currencies tumbled since last week on speculations that the two central banks, RBA and RBNZ, may consider cutting rates if global turmoil persists. According to interest rate futures, market is pricing in at least 50 basis points rate cut in September’s meeting. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7579; (P) 0.7660; (R1) 0.7741; More... USD/CHF dives further to new record low of 0.7361 so far today and met mentioned target of 200% projection of 0.8519 to 0.8081 from 0.8277 at 0.7401. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall should now extend towards 261.8% projection at 0.7130. On the upside, break of 0.7801 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. |
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Fed To Revisit Easing Options Amid Rising Likelihood Of RecessionWhile Friday's employment report may reduce the urgency of a new round of Fed's easing, deteriorating economic outlook and actions form other central banks suggest that the central bank will deliver a much less optimistic policy statement and move towards additional stimulus measures. There are several options the Fed can take to stimulate growth: changing the language in the statement, shifting the composition of the balance sheet to longer maturity, lowering interest rates paid on excess reserve, formalizing an inflation target, indicating explicit interest rate ceilings for longer-term Treasury debts (with an ingredient of asset buying) and outright bond purchases (i.e. QE3). Policymakers are unlikely to extend QE3 until more evidence on a sustainable slowdown is present and inflation and inflation expectations moderated signaficantly. We expect the Fed will at most take the first option at the August meeting. Despite small impact on the outlook, it might help lift sentiment and lead to anticipation of further easing in coming months. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.4195As the single currency has rebounded again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.4184, retaining our near term upside bias for the rebound from yesterday’s low of 1.4130 to extend to 1.4300 and possibly to 1.4330, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, upside should be limited to 1.4400 and reckon resistance area at 1.4432-54 would hold from here. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0030Although the Australian dollar tumbled to as low as 0.9927 earlier today, the subsequent rebound from there suggests a temporary low is possibly formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen but break of 1.0255/60 is needed to add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent selloff to 1.0300 but upside should be limited to 1.0400 and price should falter well below 1.0455, bring another selloff. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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