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Daily Report: Euro and Sterling Trade Lower on Massive Risk Aversion as Global Equities Selloff IntensifiesThe single currency and sterling both dropped on risk aversion, USD/JPY also fell as stock markets as Asian stock markets followed the selloff in European and U.S. equity markets and tumbled, most European indices slipped over 3% (STOXX 50 and FTSE 100) with German DAX dived over 5%, then U.S. major indices were also sharply lower, DJI (-5.55%, biggest selloff since December 2008), S&P 500 (-6.66%) and NASDAQ (-6.9%). |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0093; (P) 1.0272; (R1) 1.0363; More AUD/USD dives to as low as 0.9926 but drew some support from mentioned 38.2% retracement of 0.8066 to 1.1079 at 0.9928 and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment and some sideway trading might be seen. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0526 resistance holds and another fall could still be seen. Decline from 1.1079 is treated as a correction in the long term up trend. Below 0.9926 will target channel support (now at 0.9652). Though, break of 1.0526 will indicate short term bottoming and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1079 high. |
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Fed To Revisit Easing Options Amid Rising Likelihood Of RecessionWhile Friday's employment report may reduce the urgency of a new round of Fed's easing, deteriorating economic outlook and actions form other central banks suggest that the central bank will deliver a much less optimistic policy statement and move towards additional stimulus measures. There are several options the Fed can take to stimulate growth: changing the language in the statement, shifting the composition of the balance sheet to longer maturity, lowering interest rates paid on excess reserve, formalizing an inflation target, indicating explicit interest rate ceilings for longer-term Treasury debts (with an ingredient of asset buying) and outright bond purchases (i.e. QE3). Policymakers are unlikely to extend QE3 until more evidence on a sustainable slowdown is present and inflation and inflation expectations moderated signaficantly. We expect the Fed will at most take the first option at the August meeting. Despite small impact on the outlook, it might help lift sentiment and lead to anticipation of further easing in coming months. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4195Although the single currency fell to as low as 1.4130, as the single currency has rebounded after forming two small hammers candlestick patterns on the hourly chart, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen with upside bias for recovery to 1.4300 and possibly towards 1.4350, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, upside should be limited to 1.4400 and reckon resistance area at 1.4432-54 would hold from here. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 77.05Although the greenback slipped to 77.05 this morning, as price has rebounded from there, suggesting as long as this level holds, mild upside bias remains for test of intra-day resistance at 77.86, break there would suggest low is possibly formed but break of previous support at 78.30 is needed to add credence to this view and bring test of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 78.47-62), however, only above there would retain bullishness for a stronger rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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