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Daily Report: Dollar Soft in Range, Eurozone CPI and US ADP Employment WatchedDollar remains soft while risk markets are firm on expectation that Fed will announce new stimulus measures in September. Though, the greenback is just staying in tight range against other major currencies while rally in stocks and commodities is not having much moment. DOW was merely up 20pts overnight and major Asian equity indices are up 1-2% only. Crude oil is facing some resistance around 89/90 level even though the CRB commodity index managed to close strongly above 340. Investors are still hesitating to commit to risk positions on concern of global recession as well as never-ending European debt crisis. Some volatility in the market is anticipated with Eurozone CPI estimate and US ADP employment report featured today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 76.56; (P) 76.77; (R1) 76.94; More. USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range for the moment and intraday bias remains neutral. With 76.46 minor support intact, consolidation form 75.94 might still continue with another rise. Above 77.68 will turn bias to the upside for another rebound. But after all, even in that case, we'll stay bearish as long as 80.23 and expect and eventual downside breakout. On the downside, below 76.46 minor support will suggest that recovery from 75.94 has finished and turn bias back to the downside for this support first. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.6270Cable’s rebound after yesterday’s euro-led selloff to 1.6255 has retained our consolidative view and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6337) and possibly previous support at 1.6385/87 is likely, however, break of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6409) is needed to signal the retreat from 1.6455 (yesterday’s high) has ended and bring test of 1.6420. Looking ahead, only breach of this level would retain bullishness for another leg of rebound from 1.6207 to bring test of 1.6455 first. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8080Despite yesterday’s rebound from 0.8121 to 0.8233, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.8240, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and another corrective fall to said support at 0.8121 would be seen, below would bring retracement to 0.8105/10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7892-0.8240), however, reckon renewed buying interest should emerge above 0.8066/67 (50% Fibonacci retracement and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to 1.4385 yesterday on soft EMU data, euro found demand from sovereign names below 1.4400 level and has rebounded since, bids from same parties re-appeared this morning again around 1.4420. As traders await the release of eurozone employment data (starting 7:55GMT) and U.S. ADP employment change (12:15GMT), order books are a bit light with only offers from Asian CB reported at 1.4470-80 and 1.4500. On the downside, first stops are tipped at 1.4410 with more stops seen below yesterday’s low at 1.4385, 1.4360 and mixture of bids and stops remain at 1.4320-30. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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