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Daily Report: Yen Shrugs off Moody's Downgrade and Rises as MOF's Measures DisappointsThe Japanese yen slipped initially early in the morning as Moody's downgraded Japan's sovereign rating for one notch to Aa3 with a stable outlook and on news MOF scheduled announcement at 2:30GMT. The rating agency blamed the Japanese government for large budget deficits and building up of debt since 2009 global recession, whilst unstable leadership hammered the effectiveness of the country's economic strategies. Moody's also indicated that Japan needs to achieve 3% of nominal GDP growth in order to get the nation's deficit problem in check, the plan of doubling the sales tax from 5% to 10% by 2015 may not be enough to solve the debt issue. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 76.43; (P) 76.68; (R1) 76.89; More. USD/JPY continues to stay inside tight range of 75.94/77.19 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidative trading would be seen and above 77.19 will bring another recovery. But we'll stay bearish as long as 80.23 and expect more downside ahead. Break of 75.94 will confirm decline resumption and should target 100% projection of 81.46 to 76.28 from 80.23 at 75.05 next. |
| Special Reports |
Evaluation Of QE2 And Preview Of Possible QE3 Ahead Of Jackson Hole SymposiumThe next major event in the US after the August FOMC meeting will be next Friday's economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. After the Fed announced to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2013 on August 9, the market has been increasingly speculating that Chairman Ben Bernanke will signal additional easing measures at the meeting next week. According to a CNBC survey done after the FOMC meeting, 46% of respondents said the Fed will resume QE, up from 19% in the July survey while 37% said the Fed will not do QE, down from 68% in July. Also, of those who believe the Fed will resume QE, the asset purchases are expected to average at 628B, up from 377B in July. Central Bank Forecasts: ECB Remains on Hold Through 2012After rate hikes in April and July (each by +25 bps), ECB's main refinancing rate is now at 1.5%. We expect the central bank will remain on hold through 2012 given weakened growth and inflation outlook. Recent macroeconomic data have been disappointing. Eurozone's GDP growth eased to +0.2% q/q in 2Q11 from +0.8% in the prior quarter. Germany's economy expanded only +0.1% q/q while growth in France stalled. Manufacturing activities have shown signs of fatigue with manufacturing PMI slipping to 49.7 in August from 50.4 a month ago. while consumer confidence soured as there's no way out for the sovereign debt crisis. ZEW's survey showed that Eurozone's economic sentiment tumbled to -40 in August from -7 a month ago. The market had expected a pickup to -6.2. The index for Germany alone plunged to -37.6 from -15.1. Fiscal consolidative measures in debt-ridden economies will also weigh on growth. Diminishing inflationary pressures due to global economy downturn and easing commodity prices also make the central bank more comfortable in putting interest rates on hold. Tight fiscal and accommodative monetary stances will be the region's policy mix in coming years.
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4400Despite yesterday’s retreat from 1.4500, as the single currency has continued to find support around the Ichimoku cloud top, suggesting consolidation with upside bias would be seen but break of said resistance is needed to signal upmove has resumed for a retest of 1.4517 and later towards 1.4537. Having said that, only a sustained breach of 1.4537 would suggest a possible upside break of medium term broad range, bring test of previous resistance at 1.4580 formed last month. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.25Failure to extend intra-day rebound and current retreat from 76.88 has retained our view that further consolidation would take place and near term downside risk remains for retracement of the rise from 76.94 to 76.43 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 75.94 to 77.23), however, reckon previous support at 76.25 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. A sustained break of resistance at 76.94 would suggest retreat from 77.23 has ended and bring retest of this level Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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