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Daily Report: Risk Rally Continues Cautiously as Manufacturing Data in Spotlight TodayRisk rally extend mildly today but investors are generally cautious ahead of some important manufacturing data today. Appetite for risks is also dampened mildly by slightly weaker than expected China Manufacturing PMI as well as the surprised rate cut from Brazilian central bank. Euro and sterling are mildly softer as dragged down by rebound in Swiss Franc in EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF. Also, commodity currencies are also losing some upside momentum against the greenback. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1452; (P) 1.1651; (R1) 1.1778; More Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, EUR/CHF might have made a short term top at 1.1971. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for the moment and sustained break 4 hours 55 EMA (now at1.1555) should bring deeper pull back to 1.1163 support and below. On the upside, though, above 1.1971 will extend the strong rebound from 1.0061 towards 1.2399 medium term support turned resistance next. |
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Central Bank Forecasts: BOJ's Stance To Remain Accommodative After The New PMWe don't expect the monetary policy in Japan will change after the new Prime Minister on board. With economic growth remaining sluggish and deflation still a threat, the BOJ will leave the policy rate at virtually 0% at least until 2012. The central bank will also maintain the asset-purchase program and may expand the scope of assets if necessary. With regard to yen's strength, we believe the government has not given up intervention though the impacts so far have not been significant. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4440As the single currency has remained under pressure after breaking support at 1.4385, suggesting the fall from this week’s high of 1.4550 is still in progress and weakness to previous support at 1.4328 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and extend the aforesaid decline to 1.4300 but reckon support at 1.4259 would hold from here. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.55Although the greenback rebounded after holding above indicated support at 76.42, dollar ran into heavy offers at 77.25 and has retreated sharply, suggesting further consolidation would take place and weakness to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 76.69) cannot be ruled out, however, as long as said support at 76.40-42 holds, prospect of another rebound remains. A sustained break of said resistance at 77.25 would suggest the retreat from 77.70 has possibly ended and bring further gain towards 77.70. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Once again, as indicated in our previous update that sizeable bids remain around 76.40 and lifted USD/JPY sharply higher as a major Japanese bank, British fund and Japanese margin accounts joined buying the pair, price shot up to as high as 77.25 before running into heavy offers from exporters (for protection of indicated stops at 77.30). The greenback gave back most of its gain made earlier on selling by exporters and European names, price went back to the opening level, one should note that the major Japanese name started buying the pair at massive amount (some said is M&A related) from the level of 76.70. At the moment, bids are expected to emerge around 76.40-50 with sizeable stops placed below 76.40, 76.20 and more at 75.90 whilst on the upside, offers from exporters and European names are tipped at 77.00-10 with stops remain at 77.30. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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