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Daily Report: Post FOMC Risk Selloff Continues, Dollar FirmMarkets have clearly responded negatively to Fed's Operation Twist announcement overnight. Asian equities are broadly lower with Nikkei down -2% following the -2.5% fall in DOW. 10 Year yield dropped to record low of 1.875% while 30 year yield barely held above 3%. Crude oil broke 85 level and should be heading back to 75 .71 low set August. Dollar index jumped on risk aversions and breaches 78 level today so far. Commodity currencies are hardest hit on risk aversion as well as on respective reasons. Sterling is also pressured by expectation of more QE from BoE and hover around record low against yen. Euro, on the other hand, is relatively resilient so far and is holding above 1.35 again dollar even though it's vulnerable. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 117.68; (P) 119.14; (R1) 119.93; More GBP/JPY drops to as low as 118.35 so far and broke key support level of 118.81. There is no sign of bottoming yet and intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper decline. Sustained trading below 118.81 will target 161.8% projection of 130.83 to 123.29 from 127.31 at 115.11 in near term. On the upside, note that break of 122.26 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming in the cross. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish even in case of recovery. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Fed Announced Active Operation TwistAs expected, the Fed announced to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities so as to stimulate the economic recovery and to help ensure inflation is consistent with the dual mandate over time. The operation twist that the Fed adopts is an active one. It involves selling $400B of Treasury securities with maturities of 3 years or less and simultaneous purchase of a similar amount of Treasuries in the 6-30 year remaining maturity range. The Fed funds rate was keep unchanged at 0-0.25%. 3 Fed presidents who voted against additional policy easing were Richard Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles Plosser. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback surged across the board after FOMC announcement of 'Operation Twist' and despite intra-day retreat on stop-loss selling in AUD/JPY, active buying by German names and Japanese importers (for settlement demand) lifted USD/JPY sharply higher (biggest rise in 2 weeks) and stops at 76.70 were tripped, however, indicated offers from exporters at 77.00 still put a lid on the pair and price has retreated again from 76.97. At the moment, offers from exporters (partly due to half fiscal year end) remain at 77.00 with some stops seen above there but more selling interest should emerge around 77.30-40 with more stops placed above there. On the downside, bids from same parties (some Japanese margin accounts also joined bid) are noted from 76.60 down to 76.30 with stops remain below 76.10 and 75.90. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3650Despite overnight brief bounce to 1.3799, the single currency ran into heavy offers there and has tumbled on dollar’s broad-based strength, the breach of indicated support at 1.3556-58 confirms our view that correction from 1.3495 has ended at 1.3937 and bearishness remains for a retest of 1.3495, however, break there is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3450/55 which is likely to hold on first testing. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.45Although the greenback rallied overnight after FOMC, dollar failed to penetrate indicated resistance at 77.00 and has retreated from 76.97, suggesting further consolidation would take place and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 76.61) cannot be ruled out, however, as long as support at 76.11 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for another test of said resistance. A break of 77.00 would signal low is formed and bring test of previous resistance at 77.34 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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