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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rally Accelerates after ECB Stark Resignation, Poor Canadian Job DataDollar is broadly higher into US session as global equities weaken broadly today. Selloff in risks intensify in early US session on news that ECB's governing council member Jurgen Stark resigned. It's believed that disagreement over the way to handle the sovereign debt crisis has led to Stark's resignation. Also, he's be a huge critic of bond-buying plan and has strongly opposed to reactivation of the program last month. Euro extends post ECB decline and breaks 1.3837 key support against dollar, as well as 0.8642 against Sterling. EUR/CHF remains steady though as 1.2 was already set as the floor by SNB and Swiss Franc follows Euro lower. |
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USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9850; (P) 0.9873; (R1) 0.9917; More. USD/CAD jumps to as high as 0.9973 today and the break of 0.9965 suggests that rise from 0.9725 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside and break of 1.0009 resistance will confirm resumption of the whole rally from 0.9406. In such case, next target will be 61.8% retracement of 1.0851 to 0.9406 at 1.0299. On the downside, though, break of 0.9829 support will dampen out bullish view and argue that consolidation from 1.0009 is going to extend further. |
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ECB Pauses in September, Sends Dovish MessageThe ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1.5%. While this had been widely anticipated, the accompanying statement turned out to be more dovish than the market forecast. The central bank revised lower growth forecasts and did not signal upside risks to inflation. The tone appeared that the central bank is ready for a rate cut should the economy deteriorate further. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3940Despite intra-day selloff to 1.3788, as the single currency has rebounded from there, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and break of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3858) would bring retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3927) but renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.3937-43 and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend medium term decline from 1.4940 to 1.3750 but price should stay well above 1.3700 Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55As indicated in our previous update that although a test of previous resistance would be seen, sharp move beyond there is not expected and price has retreated from 77.85, suggesting consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 77.64) is likely but break of intra-day support at 77.43 is needed to signal temporary top is formed, bring test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 77.23), then to support at 77.07 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Seems like nothing is going to stop the euro from falling, the single currency dropped below support at 1.3838 (July low) without much difficulties and barriers at 1.3800 and 1.3780 were also triggered, more option barriers are reported at 1.3750 and 1.3700, with semi-official bids at 1.3800 and 1.3780 being cleared, these barriers do not look safe any more. Rumors of ECB's hawk Stark (also the current chief economist) is leaving the central bank should keep euro under pressure, offers are now seen from 1.3800 up to 1.3850 and further out at 1.3900. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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