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Mid-Day Report: Euro Treads Water Despite German Vote, US Jobless Claims ImprovedMarkets continue to stay in familiar range today. German's approval of EFSF expansion provided little inspiration to the markets while Italy's bond auction was largely ignored. Data from US saw jobless claims unexpected dropped sharply to 391k in the week ended September 24 but reaction is also muted. Also from US, Q2 GDP final was revised high to 1.3% annualized while price index was also revised higher to 2.5%. Canadian industrial product price rose 0.5% mom in August while raw materials price dropped -3.2% mom. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8950; (P) 0.8976; (R1) 0.9027; More... USD/CHF continues to trade in tight range with a soft tone today and is pressing 4 hours 55 EMA. Consolidation from 0.9182 temporary top is still in progress and could extend with deeper retreat. But downside is expected to be contained by 0.8647 support and bring rally resumption. Above 0.9057 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and break of 0.9182 will target 161.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.8246 from 0.7710 at 0.9621. Nevertheless, break of 0.8647 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and would bring deeper decline back to 0.7710/8246 support zone. |
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| Special Report |
ECB To Cut Or Not?The annual World Bank/IMF meeting indeed showed some influences by urging European leaders to deliver more effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis engulfing the Eurozone. Apart from heightening speculations for an expansion and leverage of the new EFSF, hopes loomed for the ECB to cut interest rates, as soon as at the meeting next week, in addition to other easing measures including re-launch of the covered bond purchase program and reintroduction of the 12-month loans for the region's banks. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency edged higher again to an intra-day high of 1.3679 on wide margin victory in German parliament for the new EFSF measures, however, as the vote outcome is somehow discounted by market players, the post-vote surge was not as impressive as the intra-day rise in Asian session. Offers from various parties are reported at 1.3690-00 with stops building up above there with more selling interest likely to emerge around 1.3750 and further out at 1.3790-00. On the downside, fair size bids are tipped at 1.3600 with stops placed below 1.3590 but more bids are located at 1.3550 with sizeable stops seen below 1.3520 and 1.3490. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5575Cable’s strong rebound after yesterday’s retreat to 1.5544 suggests near term bullishness remains for a retest of 1.5705 resistance, however, break there is needed to confirm the rise from 1.5326 has resumed and extend gain towards next chart resistance at 1.5747 but loss of upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and price should falter well below 1.5790/00, bring retreat later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold short entered at 104.50Failure to extend the retreat from this week’s high of 104.96 and current rebound from intra-day low of 103.31 suggest further consolidation would take place and said resistance at 104.96 needs to hold to retain bearishness for another retreat later. A breach of said support would retain our bearishness and suggest the rebound from 101.95 has ended at 104.96 and bring further fall to 103.00 and then 102.50 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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